This Best NFL Sports Betting Strategy including the Three Top Systems To Use below is exactly what we use for our free NFL picks service.
NFL Sports Betting Strategy and Systems
We get countless emails from people all over the world looking for an edge in their NFL sports betting strategy and what are the best systems to use. The majority of those sports betting systems center around the NFL. It is a popular sport and it generates hundreds of millions of betting dollars each season.
There are a number of simple variables we look for when compiling our NFL betting systems and we will let you in on what those variables are here.
First–we look long and hard at every home underdog. We measure the relative strength of the starters on both sides of the ball for the home underdog and the one-on-one match-ups between offense and defense. We factor in the home fan support as well.
The lines are set at the very beginning of the week. It is impossible to predict what the weather conditions will be the following Sunday or Monday. As the reports come in, we make early decisions when we suspect rain will become a factor in an NFL game. A wet ball is much more difficult to play with than strong wind. Anyone who watched last nights preseason game in Miami would tell you–rain is an equalizer. It effects totals (more unders) in a big way.
Traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast
This is one of our favorite variables. No NFL sports betting system should exclude this factor. West Coast teams that have to travel to the East Coast and play the 1:00 p.m. game have a much harder time covering the spread, historically.
Think about it….that team just traveled 5 hours across the country and are now expected to play a game that is really being played at 10:00 a.m. (according to the traveling team’s body clock). That East Coast team, no matter how bad, has an advantage.
This is just a start–we have hundreds of sports betting systems that we work into our strategy. These three are tried and true and will help you if you cannot find a starting point in your sports betting strategy.
The NFL Sports betting strategy is essential if you are going to win money betting sports. Start out by doing some additional research yourself on the sports betting systems listed above. Then, combine those systems with additional betting systems that others have already created. Compare and contrast your research. Continue to retest those betting systems until you have found one that you know will give you the biggest advantage. Rinse and repeat.
NFL Sports Betting Strategy: “Middling” Defined
Middling is a word you’ll often hear when discussing sports wagering with professional sports bettors, but what does it mean? Middling games one of the most effective ways to make money with sports betting (if you are sharp enough to find the opportunity and capitalize on it).
An example of the art of middling sports bets:
In the NFL on a Sunday in October, there is a game featuring The Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens. The game started with the Ravens as a 7 point favorite.
That is an essential number in football because most touchdowns lead to 7 points for the team which scored that touchdown, therefore you see that number more frequently than other numbers. There is nothing here out of the ordinary to speak of (yet).
As the game approaches, we start seeing some significant line movements, (and this may come as a surprise) but this occurs in the NFL games quite regularly, as there are tons of football games to bet on every Sunday. Significant line movements happen for any number of reasons–the line for games is set early in the week and the game is played on Sunday so a lot can transpire between the two teams within that time frame.
All of sudden, The Ravens find themselves favored by 10.5 points while they opened up at -7. What makes this stand out is that the spread for this game has increased by three and a half points.
Three is the second magic number in NFL football betting (and in college betting as well). Always remember 7 and 3, and you will soon have a better understanding of what middling really means.
So, you’re a sharp bettor and you bet on the Ravens -7, but now the spread has improved to 10.5 – how would it affect you if you now placed a bet on the Browns +10.5?
Since your Sportsbook will require you to bet $110 to win $100, you will eliminate the juice you pay for one. The bigger picture here is where this game ends up in the final score.
Since you now have two bets on both sides of this same game, you have an opportunity to ‘middle’ the game and win twice. If the final score is The Ravens 28 The Browns 20, you have landed in the middle of the point spread and won big.
Since a large number of games each year tend to land on seven as the final spread, there is a high probability that you could win both bets on this game even if you took the Browns at +8.5 which would have been the likely third line movement for this game (assuming the spread moves in half-point intervals). You got them at +10.5 though, increasing the probability (substantially)that you would end up middling the game and cash both tickets.
You now have provided yourself with a wonderful chance to win the two wagers by using advanced sports betting systems–by middling.
This game has to end with a difference between 7 and 10 points for you to win both bets. These types of changes do not usually occur when there are only a few games that day, but on a football, Sunday for the NFL football the opportunities arise more frequently than any other sport.
An effective way to make the most of this (not being able to predict line movements) would be to wager the favorite earlier (such as when the line opens up) and the underdogs later in the week because the majority of the cash is likely to be bet on the favorite.
You have to suspect that you have an edge when you see an opening line that looks soft. This is where your handicapping skills will really drive your profits since the middling technique won’t work if you don’t have an edge. Start using this ‘middling’ NFL sports betting strategy to decrease associated risk and improve the possibility of a big win and you will generate much more income betting sports this year.
The NFL Sports Betting strategy Review
The objective at Betting Hits is to review sports betting strategies that will aid you in your betting careers, whether professionally, recreationally, or both. We are obviously fond of successful sports betting systems that you can find online and we speak about it all the time. The Ultimate Risk-free Matched Sports Betting Guide is one example and you can find it here on our site.
Having been in and around the industry for so long, there isn’t a betting system, book, website or strategy we have not implemented. While we encourage you to go out and create betting systems on your own by testing and retesting, we know some of you do not have the time or the inclination to create those betting systems but still want to enjoy winning and profiting from sports betting.
There are quite a few informational sports betting products that were created especially for the individual who wants quick results and we have recommended a few of those products, albeit very briefly, in past posts. Our goal is to review the majority of those products and provide enough material for you to make an educated decision on which product is best for you.
The stigma in sports betting is that the house always wins over the long term. This simply isn’t the case. Books need people to win over the long term as long as most lose, and most do. Additionally, you do not have to be a professional sports bettor to make money betting sports but you do need some sort of system to prevent you from losing an entire bankroll.
The Ultimate Risk-free Matched Sports Betting Guide is a system that we love and you should test out. We preface this review by saying that a great majority of proven, winning betting systems are based upon mathematical probabilities.
They have next to nothing to do with the emotion of the game itself. Most recreational sports bettors enjoy having action on games simply to make watching them more exciting. While there is nothing wrong with watching games you bet on, we suggest removing all emotion from the bet selection process and playing games that fit into a mathematical betting system only. This ensures profit sooner than later.
Mathematical sports betting simulator systems
There are a series of mathematical sports betting systems that have been time tested and proven and work only when applied correctly and with discipline. Yes, the systems work. We’ve used some of the methods for years. Some of the MLB systems we have tweaked even further to increase our probabilities while decreasing the number of bets placed within the system.
This Sports Betting strategy gives its first 30 days of winning sports betting picks for no money. The system almost gives those picks away initially. Since you will be using the house money to bet.
You can do this when the systems stay the same year in and year out. Nothing changes. The system will show you, how to utilize the sports betting sites, what point spreads to key on, which teams to bet, and for how much money.