Asian Cup Predictions Matches Case Study

Asian Cup Predictions

Asian Cup Predictions Matches Case Study

Asian Cup Predictions – Introduction

International football tournaments are notoriously difficult to predict.

Not only do teams who many not have faced each other for years play each other, often at a neutral venue, but the turn over of players from one match to the next can be significantly higher to what is seen in club football.

Compounding this already difficult situation is the collation of accurate and reliable statistics about teams and their previous matches. While it’s certainly not the same as 50 years ago when players never have seen outside of their home country would suddenly appear at a World Cup, but it is much easier to obtain in-depth statistics about Brazil vs Germany than it is for Malaysia vs Fiji.

In this case study we will apply two different predictive models to the 2015 Asian Cup to see how accurately they can predict matches with limited data, and compare their accuracy in predicting the match winner to bookmakers.

Selection of sample Asian Cup teams
For the purposes of the case study two of the four groups involved in the Asian Cup were used, with each group stage match modeled and analysed. The groups selected are groups A and D.

These groups were chosen due to the difference in statistics available for the eight participating teams. Tournament heavyweights Japan, South Korea and hosts Australia all have extensive match and player statistics available, while minnows Palestine had as few as five matches to base predictions with.

The two groups also provide an interesting balance of teams who competed at the World Cup in the last calendar year (Japan, South Korea and Australia), through to a side who was required to come through a qualifying tournament (Palestine).

Asian Cup Predictions – Match prediction models


Two different models were applied to each group match for pools A and D of the tournament. The first, Total Shots Ratio (TSR), hoped to identify the “better” attacking team (and therefore the most likely to win), while the second will use a power ranking system known as the World Football Elo Ratings to calculate match probabilities.

Both TSR and the Elo Ratings will be compared to the bookmaker favorite to see which more accurately predicts the winner of each match. The Elo Rating’s match probabilities will also be used to identify potential value bets throughout the tournament.

Asian Cup Predictions – Total Shots Ratio


To calculate the TSR of each of the eight participating teams, shots for, and shots against were obtained from Soccerway. For the case study data from up to a maximum of 20 matches was collected from the years 2013 and 2014.

With shot data not available for all matches these were not always sequential, and the total number of samples differed from team to team (for example only five samples were available for Palestine). This data will however be updated through out the tournament.

The application of TSR in a tournament setting compared to a league has one obvious problem, the goals scored and conceded by different nations were against teams of varying abilities.

For example within their 20 matches Australia were defeated by both Brazil and France 6-0, while fellow group A competitors Kuwait and Oman rarely played outside of Asia. TSR also does not take into account the standing of the respective matches, a friendly has the same weighting as a World Cup final in the rating calculation.

Inside a league setting where teams play the same teams multiple times this is not a problem and it would be expected that the modeling would be more accurate. Through this case study we hope to see if this also applies in a tournament setting.

There are also questions about TSR’s real assessment of a team’s attacking ability. Without a way to assess the quality and context of each shot TSR can potentially lead to a false assessment of a team’s true goal scoring potential.

Asian Cup Predictions – World Football Elo Ratings


The Elo Ratings used in the case study will come directly from the World Football Elo Ratings website, with ratings updated between each match.

Where TSR’s achilles heel is its inability to distinguish between different levels of match and opponent, Elo Ratings are purely based on these factors. The stronger the opposition you beat, the higher your rating becomes. Similarly, losses against highly rated opponents are not punished as harshly as those against teams you are expected to beat.

It should also be noted that there is a ratings boost in probability calculations with Elo Ratings, this will be applied to Australia throughout the tournament.

Pre-tournament ratings


Asian Cup Group A


Team Elo Rating TSR Rating Bookmaker probability to win group*
Australia 1635 0.48 58%
Korean Republic 1619 0.56 44%
Kuwait 1513 0.44 6%
Oman 1543 0.44 7%

  • Quoted odds to win Group A with Bet Easy

Pre-tournament group A was expected to be dominated by hosts Australia and the Korean Republic by bookmakers. This was mirrored in the Elo Ratings with both rated substantially higher than Kuwait and Oman. TSR suggests that Koran are the strongest attacking team in the group, while Oman are expected by both the bookmakers and Elo to finish third in the group.

Asian Cup Group D


Team Elo Rating TSR Rating Bookmaker probability to win group*
Iraq 1498 0.45 13%
Japan 1712 0.55 83%
Jordan 1509 0.46 13%
Palestine 1322 0.45 2%

  • Quoted odds to win Group D with Bet Easy

Japan are dominant favourites to win the group on all three models, and are the strongest team in the tournament according to the Elo Ratings. There is little to separate Iraq and Jordan on any of the measures as they look likely to battle out second placing in the group. Palestine are by far the weakest team according the the Elo Ratings and bookmakers, however interestingly have a similar TSR to Iraq and Jordan.

Asian Cup Predictions – Match Results


At the conclusion of the two weeks of the group phase of the tournament, all three models correctly predicted at least 75% of winners. This may have been aided by the lack of draws seen throughout the tournament as a whole, with all 24 matches during the group stage having a winner.

Predictive Model Selections & Results

Match TSR Prediction Elo Prediction Bookmaker Prediction Winner

  • Australia v Kuwait
  • Korean Republic v the Oman Korean
  • Japan v Palestine
  • Iraq v Jordan
  • Australia v Oman
  • Korean Republic v Kuwait
  • Palestine v Jordan
  • Iraq v Japan
  • Australia v Korean Republic
  • Oman v Kuwait
  • Japan v Jordan
  • Iraq v Palestine
  • Total Correct 9/12 10/12 11/12 x
  • Win Percentage 75% 83% 92% x
  • Within the sample of 12 matches, only on three occasions did the models differ in their opinion of who the match-winner would be. Interestingly, when all three models were unanimous in their choice of the strongest team the team saluted nine out of nine times.

Only on one occasion did both the Elo Rating and TSR disagree with the bookmaker favourite (Jordan over Iraq). While both Elo and TSR had the teams as almost exactly equal, they did both slightly favour Jordan however bookmaker favourite Iraq ultimately won the match 1-0.

On two occasions the TSR disagreed with both the Elo Ratings and bookmakers on which was the better team. In the first match, the Korea stunned Australia winning 1-0, while in the second example Kuwait were selected to defeat Oman (with Oman winning).

Overall the bookmaker’s favourite was the most successful in selecting the winner of matches with an amazing 92% strike rate. Blindly level stake betting the bookmaker favourite in each match would have netted a return of 44% over the tournament.

The second most accurate model was the Elo Ratings, selecting the winner in 83% of matches. Blindly level stake betting the top rated team using the Elo Ratings would have netted a return of 22%. Perhaps more interestingly though, betting only when an edge was identified through the expected win percentage an 9% return was achieved using level stakes.

The least accurate of the models was the Total Shot Ratio which predicted the winner in 75% of matches. Unsurprisingly betting blindly at level stakes also achieved the lowest return of 2%.

Asian Cup Predictions – Conclusion


With so many international football tournaments each year at a range of different age groups there are many situations were punters may be required to handicap matches involving sides with little form, and with a high degree of mystery surrounding the participating teams and players.

This lack of data, or data which may be against a variety of different quality opposition can make modelling very difficult. Our pure team statistic based model, Total Shot Ratio was the lowest performing of the three models, however with such a small sample of matches it is hard to definitively rule it out completely as a tool to identify winners.

It was the only model to find the victory for Korea over the Socceroos, however this could be explained away as Australia were resting a number of players. It also incorrectly predicted Kuwait as a better attacking team to Oman which could be due to the differing levels of opposition the teams have faced in their previous 20 matches.

The Elo Ratings only major stumble was selecting Jordan to defeat Iraq in the opening round (albeit by only 1%). Its only other selection which lost, Australia to Korea, was easily explainable and was also incorrectly predicted by the bookmakers.

For me the Elo Ratings real party piece of the tournament was its ability to find six value bets (four wins and two losses), during the tournament. With level stake betting these returned a very reasonable 9% profit.

Yes this was less than simply betting both the Elo Ratings and bookmaker favourites blindly, however simply blind betting is not a sustainable strategy long term as its not known at any stage what the expected value of any bets are.

So if your looking for a football match prediction model for an upcoming tournament where stats are few and far between look to the bookmakers to give you the greatest lead on which team is more likely to win. However through the use of a power ranking system like Elo Ratings you might just find an exploitable edge in their prices.

Asian cup predictions match case study round one

After a long wait, the Asian Cup finally kicks off this Friday in Melbourne as hosts Australia face Kuwait. As part of our football predictive model case study, we preview each of the opening round Asian Cup matches to see who we, and the bookmakers think will win each of the matches in Groups A and D.

Don’t forget to read our introductory article about the case study, and check back regularly to not only see how our predictions compare but for our predictions for all group phase matches.

Australia v Kuwait match prediction

Asian cup predictions


Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.48 78% 1.27
Draw x x 5.58
Kuwait 0.44 22% 14.49
Prediction Australia Australia Australia
Unsurprisingly at home against minnow Kuwait, the Socceroos are strong favorites to claim victory in the opening match of the tournament. Rated $1.28 through our Elo Ratings it seems as though the bookmakers agree with our two model’s assessment of the match.

The Korea Republic v Oman match prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Korea Republic 0.55 60% 1.57
Draw x x 3.90
Oman 0.43 40% 7.08
Prediction Korea Republic Korea Republic Korea Republic
Again all signs point to the favourites in the second match of Group A. Interestingly, South Korea had the best TSR from all 8 teams in our case study, but the third best Elo Rating, suggesting that their recent shots may have come either in losses, or against weak opposition. Rated at $1.66 by our model they seem overvalued by Pinnacle.

Japan v Palestine prediction


Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Japan 0.54 90% 1.15
Draw x x 8.33
Palestine 0.45 10% 22.57
Prediction Japan Japan Japan
Qualifiers Palestine aren’t expected to trouble reigning Asian Champions Japan. Amazingly the Blue Samurai are actually a value bet at $1.15 with Pinnacle according to our Elo Ratings.

Jordan v Iraq prediction

Jordan vs Iraq

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Jordan 0.45 51% 3.12
Draw x x 2.97
Iraq 0.44 48% 2.64
Prediction Jordan Jordan Iraq
In a match that is likely to decide who progresses to the elimination stage of the tournament, both of our models are predicting a victory to Jordan by the slightest of margins. Rated a $1.96 chance Jordan does seem value but there is so little between the teams it is hard to recommend betting on them in the first test of whether our models are better at predicting winners than the bookmakers.

Asian Cup Predictions Case Study Round 2



One round down and we are quickly onto the second round of matches for the Asian Cup. In this article, we will post an update on our match prediction case study and see how our predictions have fared so far and look forward to the next four matches.

Results so far
Match TSR Prediction Elo Prediction Bookmaker Prediction Winner
Australia v Kuwait Australia Australia Australia Australia
Korean Rupublic v Oman Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic Korean Republic
Japan v Palestine Japan Japan Japan Japan
Iraq v Jordan Jordan Jordan Iraq Iraq
x x x x x
Total Correct 3/4 3/4 3/4 4/4
The first round of matches went largely to script for both groups as three of the tournament heavyweights faced off with minnows. Bookmakers Pinnacle Sports correctly found the winner in all four matches which was an impressive start. Both the TSR and Elo rating incorrectly selected Jordan to defeat Iraq, however there was very little difference between both sides ratings.

The only value bet identified by the Elo ratings was a winner with Japan easily accounting for Palestine.


The Korean Republic v Kuwait match prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Korean Republic 0.56 69% 1.452
Draw x x 4.450
Kuwait 0.43 31% 8.570
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Korean Republic
No surprises with both models and bookmakers all expecting a win for the Koreans in their second match in Canberra in four days. The current price available with Pinnacle Sports is exactly the same as the Elo win expectancy, while they have a much higher TSR than Kuwait who was brave in the tournament opener.

Australia v Oman match prediction

asia cup predictions

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.49 78% 1.375
Draw x x 4.970
Oman 0.42 33% 9.780
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Australia
At their current price of $1.38 hosts, Australia is providing value according to the Elo win expectancy. The Socceroos also have a higher TSR. Oman was impressive in their opener against Korea, however are given little chance against the hosts by bookmakers.

Palestine v Jordan match prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Palestine 0.37 27% 9.190
Draw x x 4.279
Jordan 0.45 73% 1.454
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Jordan
Another strong favorite with qualifiers Palestine meeting Jordan who went down in a close encounter with Iraq in their first match of the tournament. Rated a $1.37 chance by our Elo Rating, Jordan is value at the $1.454 currently available with Pinnacle Sports.

Iraq v Japan match prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Iraq 0.45 33% 11.000
Draw x x 4.750
Japan 0.56 67% 1.370
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Japan
Tournament favorites Japan meet first-round winners Iraq in the final match of the second round. All signs point to another victory by Japan, however, the Elo Ratings suggest it could be a much closer affair than the bookmakers are predicting.

Rated a $3 chance by our model, Iraq seem great value at $11 (however are not a suggested bet as our model does no include the draw), while Japan are currently overvalued with our model rating them at $1.49.

Asian Cup Predictions Case Study Round 3



We quickly move onto the final round of the group stage of our tournament betting case study with some close and heavyweight clashes. Don’t forget to read our introductory article, and our previews for round 1 and round 2 of the tournament so far.

Results so far
Match TSR Prediction Elo Prediction Bookmaker Prediction Winner
Australia v Kuwait
Korean Republic v Oman
Japan v Palestine n
Iraq v Jordan
Australia v Oman Australia Australia Australia Australia
Korean Republic v Kuwait
Palestine v Jordan
Iraq v Japan
x x x x x
Total Correct 7/8 7/8 8/8 x
Asian Cup round 3 predictions
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Korean Republic

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Australia 0.52 66% 2.02
Draw x x 3.14
Korean Republic 0.56 47% 4.14
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Korea
Its the clash everyone had circled in their calendar as soon as the groups were announced for the tournament and host Australia face fellow Asian heavyweights the Korean Republic. This game is the first with different teams with higher TSR and Elo Ratings. This is also the first match with a major difference in the Elo win expectancy and prices available from bookmakers, however, they do agree that Australia should win the match.

Oman v Kuwait prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Oman 0.40 52% 2.36
Draw x x 3.27
Kuwait 0.44 48% 3.33
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Kuwait
Again the TSR and Elo Ratings differ in their highest ratings, while the Elo win expectancy and bookmakers agree. With both teams without a point it the match has no impact on the group results however will certainly help to separate our two models.

Japan v Jordan prediction

Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy
Japan 0.56 78% 1.353
Draw x x 5.120
Jordan 0.48 22% 10.450
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Japan
Both teams will be desperate to win their final match, for Japan a win locks up 1st place in the group, while a win for Jordan will keep them in contention for 2nd place. Again there seems to be value for the favorite, rated at $1.28 by the Elo win expectancy.

Iraq v Palestine prediction


Result Total Shot Ratio Elo Win Expectancy Pinnacle
Iraq 0.44 78% 1.256
Draw x x 6.400
Palestine 0.34 22% 12.800
Asian Cup Predictions – Prediction Iraq
Iraq is strong favorites to claim their second win of the tournament against Palestine. The bookmakers have them priced very similar to our Elo win expectancy.

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs

Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs

Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs- Online Sportsbook Loyalty Programs vs Casino.
Online casinos love to reward players because they know that there is an awful lot of competition out there among establishments of that genre. When they are able to retain a customer, it keeps them ahead of the game, because the nature of the online casino player is characterized by extensive “shopping” around for appetizing offers.

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs – how to use them

When we talk about a “reward” program, we are talking about one which is roughly akin to the frequent flyer programs you see at airlines. Not an upfront reward like a $33 free sign-up bonus, but compensation for loyalty.

That is to say, the more you patronize the operation, the more credit you will get toward rewards. In casinos, this manifests itself in the form of comp points that can be redeemed later. The more points one gets, the greater the rewards will be.

Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs

Casinos differ as to what a customer has to do to qualify. Sometimes the player is automatically enrolled; sometimes entry into the program only comes if the customer requests it or if they are invited. Often the loyalty program is represented by various levels of attainment. For example, one could go from a Bronze to a Silver to a Gold to a Platinum. Usually, the customer will get more substantial bonuses upon graduating to a higher level or “rank.”

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs – winning at these programs

It is all designed to keep customers around, naturally. The same can be said of sportsbooks and how they view the “loyalty” issue. The average revenue on a per-player basis is greater in sports than it is in the online casino, but there is also a bigger risk because the average wagers are greater. The games are programmed to bring a certain return in the casino, while the edge a sportsbook may have over a customer is not static, but instead depends on skill level.

Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs – The loyalty program that an online sportsbook may have is actually very similar, and may actually be based on one that the casino component of that operation already has. At some of the more established sportsbooks, loyalty points are generated with each wager the customer makes. The points are then redeemed for free bets.

For the most part, these plans are geared toward recreational players, as sportsbooks often distinguished between those and the customers they consider to be “sharps” or “pros.”

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs

There are other ways in which loyalty is rewarded. It can be argued that reload bonuses are a reward in and of themselves, and there are more than a couple of sportsbooks who have a lifetime bonus for those who make subsequent deposits of a certain minimum amount. A “cashback reward” is not that unusual, coming in the form of “free money” that can be used in conjunction with real money for a wager. The “rollover” (wagering requirement) on a loyalty bonus is always lower than the casino, and generally should be anywhere from 3x to 10x.

One of the differences between the two “products” is that sportsbook loyalty programs are less common than casino loyalty programs.

Online Sportsbooks vs Casino Loyalty Programs – Sportsbook operators understand that loyalty can be a conditional thing because the very nature of the sports bettors’ mentality is that he or she will want to shop for the best odds on any given event; a condition that doesn’t really exist as much in the online casino.

Advanced Sports Bet Systems

Advanced Sports Bet Systems that actually win you money. If you are a novice and are just starting out then you can check out our Beginners Sports Betting Systems You Cannot Profit Without.

Advanced Sports Bet Systems

For the Advanced candidates, please go on with these advanced betting systems.

Intro

A Bet System is a way to handle your stake. On many occasions, people tend to lose their minds on money management. They have no control over the money or winning stake.
You must be aware that money is your bullet, the bookie is your enemy. To kill the bookie, you need ammo; and you got to have money. You must take care of your money.
Besides money management, A Bet System also acts as a betting guide or called a “system.”
I would explain more in the individual systems of this betting guide.

Advanced Sports Bet Systems - The Kelly Criterion


Advanced Sports Bet Systems – The Kelly Criterion


The Kelly Criterion Advanced Sports Bet Systems follows Kelly’s Criterion which was developed in 1956 by John L. Kelly. Kelly’s theory is designed to maximize the growth of your bankroll (e.g., a betting capital) over the long term by determining the optimal stake on a bet. It requires that your percentage-estimations are better than the bookmakers’ estimations. In case of that, the following formula will tell you the optimal amount of your fund to bet:


Formula: (odds x estimation – 1)/(odds – 1)


Example:
Betting capital: $1000
Odds: 5,00
Estimation: 0,25 (25 %)
(5,00 x 0,25 – 1) / (5,00-1) = 0,0625
This means that you should bet 6,25 % of your fund = $62,5

Many punters use Kelly’s formula. Others find it too risky because it requires a lot of your percentage estimations. Even if you manage to find value bets, bets with an overrated value can cost you some money, because the stake, found with the formula, is too high. You can use a fraction system,
e.g., divide the percentage with 2, which will minimize risk. Another possibility is to use Kelly’s formula to determine stake proportions, i.e., to help you find out how much to bet on game one compared to game 2. This can be done the following way:
According to the Kelly Formula, you should bet 4% of your fund on game 1 and 2% of your fund on game 2. If you are going to place for example 100$ on these two games, you should use 4/6 = 66,7 % = 67$ on game 1 and 2/6 = 33,3% = 33$ on game 2.

Advanced Sports Bet Systems

Martingale Advanced Sports Bet System

The Martingale Advanced Sports Bet Systems follows the Martingale system which is an ancient and straightforward system popular in 1980s France. It is based on the probability of losing streaks and is usually applied to ‘even money’ bets.

How does the Martingale system work?
Every time you lose, you double your previous bet and continue doing so until you win. The theory behind this is that when you do eventually win, you will have covered your last chances and have one betting unit profit.

You start with one bet. If you win, you start again with one bet. If you lose, you double your bet. Each time you lose, you double your last lost bet. Eventually, you are bound to win. When you win, you will recover all your lost bets plus one unit profit against your initial wager.

Although infallible in theory, the Martingale system requires a large bankroll, has a meager return, and is a perilous one because of the maximum bet limits imposed by the betting companies. If you run out of money or reach the company limit, you can lose a lot with no chance to recover your losses.

The principle of the Martingale system is as follows:

Martingale 1-2-4-8-16-32.


Each time you lose, you bet double. Do this again until you win or until you play the highest bet. Then return to the lowest bet. Example:

  1. Bet $1 and win. Keep betting $1 until you lose, then bet $2.
  2. If you win the $2, return to $1. If you lose, then bet $4.
  3. If you win the $4, back to $1. If you lose, then bet $8.
  4. If you win the $8, return to $1. If you lose, then bet $16.
  5. If you win the $32, return to $1. If you lose, then also return to $1.
  6. And so on…

Example:
You’ve found a game with odds 2.0 for a home victory. You bet 100$, but you lose, as the game ends in a draw. Next time you bet 200$ on a game with odds 2.0. If you lose again, you must bet 400$ on a game with odds=2.0. If you win this time, you’ve placed a total stake of 100+200+400 =700$, and you’ve won 100$ for your efforts. The 100$ payoff is equal to what you would’ve earned on your first bet.

The D’Alembert Principle Advanced Sports Bet System


The D’Alembert Principle Advanced Sports Bet Systems is another popular mathematical system which is named after Jean Le Rond d’Alembert, a French mathematician and physicist who was born in 1717.

The D’Alembert Principle Advanced Sports Bet System

His theory on the “Law of Equilibrium” supposes a balance of successes and failures of certain events if you consider a long series of these events. The d’Alembert, sometimes referred to as the “Pyramid System,” as you increase your bet by one unit after a loss and decrease your bet by one unit after a win. The sequence and amount raised or lowered can be varied to suit particular games and odds.

Each loss goes up one unit, each win go down one unit. Thus “hopefully,” you get back where you started, meanwhile, in the end, making $1 from each and every win. Example:

  1. First, bet $1. If you win, bet $1. If you lose, bet $2.
  2. If you earn $2, next bet $1. If you lose, bet $3.
  3. If you earn $3, next bet $2. If you lose, bet $4.
  4. If you earn $4, next bet $3. If you lose, bet $5.
  5. If you win $5, next bet $4. If you lose, bet $6.
  6. If you win $6, next bet $5. If you lose, bet $8.
  7. Etc.

You’d better set limits or will find yourself in outer space some day-but usually, D’Alembert is the most efficient system. For example, if you start at $1 and “return to base” every 100 plays, whether winning or losing-this is definitely better than flat betting at $50.

One typical sequence would be handled as follows:

1 bet) Bet 1 unit2 bet)Up to 2 units3 bet) Bet 1 unit4 bet) Up to 2 units5 bet) Up to 3 units6 bet) Bet 2 units
Lose,Win,Lose,Lose,Win,Win,
-1 units+1 unit+0 units-2 units+1 unit+3 units

Your “unit” can be equal to $1, $5, $25, or anything that you designate. If your group were $5, then you would be down $5 after the first wager. Your second stake is $10, and the win puts you up to a net of one unit or $5. Now you decrease your next bet after a win, back to $5. The loss of $5 puts you even at zero units.

The next bet of two units loses, so you increase to three units. Because you win this wager, you will now decrease your stake to two units. This wager wins, and you are up a total of three units thus far. There is no determined stop-win point with the system, so you must set one for yourself.

If one unit profit were excellent for you, then you would have won the sequence after the second wager (being up one unit) and quit or began a new chain. If two or three units were your objective, then the sixth bet would have sufficed.

The higher your objective win, the longer the chain will be. You should also pre-select a stop-loss point for any sequence that you play to help control losses. Notice that this sequence has three wins and three losses. When the wins and losses balance each other or are in equilibrium, then your net gain is equal to the number of wins in your sequence. This sequence has three wins that balance out three losses. The net profit is three units.

Please realize that if we had a losing sequence, a more aggressive unit size progression will work harder against you, losing money much faster. Because there are more ways to lose than a win on an even-money wager (18 wins versus 20 losses out of 38 trials), you will be on the losing side of the sequence more often.

Therefore, you may choose to portray a more favorable sequence here as an example. You are better off in the end, losing less with the smaller unit size than winning more with larger unit size. Let us examine something called a “tree diagram” of the d’Alembert system. For this example, we are using a $5 unit and will limit the progression to no more than five wagers:

The d’Alembert Tree Diagram (5-bet progression using a $5 unit)

Total Probabilities of sequence ending events = 1.00 or 100%

The tree diagram is called that because it spreads out as it grows, just as the possibilities do. Starting with one wager, you can quickly see how all the options develop going up to five bets deep. Once you know what all the possible outcomes are, you can calculate the likelihood of each final event on the tree.

The terminal events are represented with rounded boxes and contain the probability of reaching that particular outcome. The chances of winning the first bet are easy to see. There are 18 ways out of 38 to win the wager; so, 18 divided by 38 equals 0.4737 or 47.37%. To win after the second bet, you would have lost the first, then won the second.

The chances of losing the first wager (20/38) times the chances of winning the second (18/38) are 24.93%. To calculate the probability of reaching a particular point on the tree diagram, just count the number of wins and losses along the way and apply them as exponents before multiplying everything together.

We can calculate the likelihood of winning a sequence by losing three bets and winning two bets, for example, as in win #5:

P(Lose) x P(Lose) x P(Lose) x P(Win) x P(Win) = P(Win #5), which is the probability that this exact sequence will occur.

If: P(Win) = 18/38 and P(Lose) = 20/38, for each spin, then: (20/38)³ x (18/38)² = P(Win #5).

P(Win #5) = 0.0327 or 3.27%

If you calculate all the probabilities of terminal events and add them together, they should equal 1.00 (or 100%). A final event is an event that causes the progression to end. A situation where the bettor is ahead after the first through fourth bets would end the progression. After placing the fifth stake, win, lose, or draw, we have decided to quit the sequence.

Take the amount of money that we are ahead or behind for each terminal event and multiple it times the probability of that event. Now sum these up to calculate the average money won or lost for this particular betting system:

Average Total Winnings: +$4.56

Win #1 ($5):Win #2 ($5):Win #3 ($5):Win #4 ($5):Win #5 ($5):
18/38 x $5(20/38) x (18/38) x $5(20/38)² x (18/38)² x $5(20/38)³ x (18/38)² x $5(20/38)³ x (18/38)² x $5
+$2.37+$1.25+$0.62+$0.16+$0.16
Lose ($25):Lose ($25):Lose ($25):Lose ($75): 
(20/38)^4 x (18/38) x –$25(20/38)^4 x (18/38) x –$25(20/38)^4 x (18/38) x –$25(20/38)^5 x –$75
–$0.91–$0.91–$0.91–$3.02

Average Total Loses: <$5.75>

Allowing up to a 5-bet progression with $5 units, the D’Alembert delivers $4.56 in wins minus $5.75 in losses, for a net loss of $1.19 per betting sequence. Another useful bit of information is the average number of spins, or bets per progression.

The summation of the number of spins times the probability of ending the progression in as many spins gives us this statistic. For the first four bets, the player must win to end the sequence.

Otherwise, the sequence is automatically terminated after the fifth bet. You will note, there is no final event in the third spin, so the probability of ending the betting progression is zero. Here is how the calculation would look:

P(1 spin) x 1 spinP(2 spins) x 2 spinsP(3 spins) x 3 spinsP(4 spins) x 4 spinsP(5 spins) x 5 spins
!ERROR! illegal character '#'!ERROR! illegal character '#'0
or 0.0 x 3 spins
!ERROR! illegal character '#'!ERROR! illegal character ''
0.47370.49860.00.24881.0740

An average number of spins for a 5-bet progression = 2.2951, or 2.3 turns.

We could have calculated the probability of all six terminal events in the fifth spin and added them together to get the probability of going to five spins. Because these events are mutually exclusive, it is easier to take 1.00 minus the chances of ending the progression in spins one through four. The probability of ending in spins one through four is [0.4737 +0.2493 +0.0 +0.0622] or 0.7852.

Therefore, we have 100% – 78.52%, which equals a 21.48% chance of ending the progression in the fifth spin. Taking the sum of all probabilities times the spins needed is about 2.3 average spins per progression for a 5-bet D’Alembert. If we lose $1.19 per progression and each progression averages 2.3 spins, then we are expecting a loss of almost 52 cents per bet.


Fibonacci Sequence Advanced Sports Bet System


The Fibonacci Sequence Advanced Sports Bet System goes like this – 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34. Go up one step with each loss, down two steps with each win. Note that every win pays for the two losses before it.

Example:

  1. Bet $1 until you lose. Then bet $2.
  2. If you win at $2, then return to step 1. If you lose, then bet $3.
  3. If you win at $3, then return to step 1. If you lose, then bet $5.
  4. If you win at $5, then return to step 2. If you lose, then bet $8.
  5. If you win at $8, then return to step 3. If you lose, then bet $13.
  6. If you win at $13, then return to step 4. If you lose, then bet $21.
  7. If you win at $21, then return to step 5. If you lose, then bet $34.
  8. If you win at $34, then return to step 6. If you lose, return to step 1.

Recommended variant for the high roller: instead of going down two steps with each win, go down 1 step with each win until you win 2 in a row-then go down two steps. This variant may be as likely as any system to help you in the long run, and meanwhile, you get some tremendous wins and excitement.

There are numerous other variants. However, the usual Fibonacci is extremely unsatisfactory for the high roller-you lose often and never win big. Whereas for the player who prefers not to play 34 times his minimum bet if possible, it is debatable whether any Fibonacci is any better than Martingale, or just gives you two extra steps and then helps you fall off the cliff more often.

Therefore, no Fibonacci is recommended for the cautious player.

1-3-2-6 Advanced Sports Bet Systems


The 1-3-2-6 Advanced Sports Bet Systems follows a simple yet effective process derived from the name of this system which says it all. It is similar to the Paroli system. It is based on the premise that you can win four times in a row.

Your initial bet is 1 unit, the second 3 units, the third two units, and the fourth six units. Let’s assume that each unit is $10, and the odds are 1:1 – even money.

The first bet is $10. When winning, $10 is added to the $20 on the table, making the second bet $30. When winning again on the second bet, there would be $60 on the table. Of this, you take down $40, and the third bet is now $20. If the third bet wins, you will have $40 on the table to which you add $20, making a total of $60 for the fourth bet.

If the fourth bet wins, there would be a total of $120 on the table, all of which is net profit. Now all the bet is taken down, and you start the system all over again at $10. Also, each time you lose, at any level, you start all over again at $10.

If you lose the first bet, your loss is $10. The second level loss is $20 (because you added another $10). At the third level, a loss will give you a net profit of $20 (because you have taken down $40). At the fourth level, a loss leaves you breaking even (because you put back $20 out of the $40 taken down).

The attraction of this system is that you risk $20 at a chance of making $120 net profit. This means you can lose six times at the worst level (second bet), and with one win (a set of four wins in a row) get your money back.

The 10% Advanced Sports Bet Systems


The 10% Advanced Sports Bet Systems follows the below principals. With each loss, go up 10% rounded to the nearest non-zero bet unit, with each win go down 10%. After you break even, then with each extra win, return halfway back to the lowest bet.

This is identical to D’Alembert except that if you hit $20, you then go up and down $2. If you hit $30, you then go up and down $3. Etc. Be sure to keep track of your Total since the last time you saw $1, and reduce bets by 50% after each win that causes a total net win or that breaks even.

The Ten Percent Solution is for D’Alembert players who never want to give up, or for “cancellation” players who want to go the limit with slightly less insanity. With the Ten Percent Solution, the higher you play, the more you might win-instead of being doomed to play higher and higher with less and less hope or reason.

The Ten Percent Solution can be efficient. Be warned, however, that this is not a low-risk strategy. It is only “lower-risk play for high-risk players.” The Ten Percent Solution is not for those who lack discipline.


Betting Strategy


A strategy is a long term plan of action designed to achieve a particular goal, most often “winning”. The approach is differentiated from tactics or immediate actions with resources at hand by its nature of being extensively premeditated, and often practically rehearsed.

There is a Chinese proverb “A good strategy is a good start of any work. A good start is half of the success of a job “.

What do sports betting related to strategy? How do we apply strategy to soccer betting? Is the question we have to ask ourselves.

Sports Arbitrage Betting Best Practices That Reveal the Real Risks Involved.

Sports Arbitrage Betting Best Practices That Reveal the Real Risks

The “Zero Risk Online Sports Betting Arbitrage System”. 100% Winners, No Risk, No Problem.

Sports Arbitrage Betting Best Practices

Intro

Are you familiar with these advertisements?

Due to the economic crisis from the COVID-19 Pandemic, many people have lost their jobs. Therefore more and more people take part in sports betting in order to solve financial problems. At the same time, many so-called “zero-risk online arbitrage systems” and “A sports betting system for winning 100% of your bets” flood the entire internet.

Sports Arbitrage Betting Best Practices

I do not want to comment more on these types of systems, just hope you can read my understanding of the risks involved before you use them.

As common sense, all the profits are based on the different odds from different makers. All the above systems tend to guide you on how to operate betting in the known rules of the odds. But do you really read these rules before yours betting? In fact, all the oddsmakers have been added to their advantage in terms of the invisible place. Do you read that?

Here are unexpected variables that can ruin of the betting even the best plans:

  1. Differing bookmaker Terms and Rules

Different bookmakers have different rules about how to manage the unexpected events, such as play games’ delay, sport event canceled and so on. Then some makers will return your money and some will act on the bet completely. If like that, it is not arbitrage and results in 50 percentage chance you win or lose.

  1. Placing the Wrong Bet / Dawdling

Small accidents may be expensive. If you are in trouble when placing wager, the risk of making mistakes can happen. For example, if you are placing on an over/under and at one odds maker both over and under have the same odds. It is not uncommon to accidentally back the wrong option and end up with two bets on the same outcome! Rushing and making mistakes is a potential risk.

Also if you place one bet and then take too long to place the second one, the odds may have changed enough to render the odds out of your plan. You might miss the second bet completely.

  1. Odds Changing/Expiring

Generally speaking, this is the most common problem faced in sports arbitrage betting. The longer time you stay in betting the more chance that the odds will change or even expire.
If one of the odds we have used in the betting arbitrage was in fact a mistake and bookmaker decide to change or expire, we are obviously missing the second bet. This is also a potential risk like number 2.

  1. Inexperience

Lack of experience in Sports Betting Arbitrage is the most important risk of all. Not make sense of odds, not understanding how to work, Missing the second bet, all the problem you will create and even not be able to respond in time when the mistakes occur. So inexperience is indeed a risk factor.

  1. Stake Restrictions

Some bookmakers might put a limit on how much you can stake on your bets. This is not only a risk associated with arbitrage betting but will act as a bottleneck to your entire betting process. You will not able to make good profits due to this restriction.

How To Eliminate Sports Gambling Risks With Arbitrage Betting
Betting or gambling has been such a favorite pastime of many people. Since ancient times people have been casting lots or setting their bets in various events especially in sports. From the gladiator duels in ancient Rome to the bullfights in Spain, people love the thrill of betting.

The problem is, betting is teeming with risks. People waste large sums of money when they lose while betting, some even ruin their lives because of mismanaged gambling. People however love winning and would exert all efforts to profit from their bets. Luckily, clever people discovered a solution to earn from betting without facing the dreaded risks. This solution comes in the form of arbitrage betting, which is now popularly being used in sports gambling.

What is Arbitrage all about?

The term arbitrage refers to the method of trading that ensures profits while eliminating risks. Though arbitrage has been used by people since time immemorial, it has lately become quite popular with the stock market. Arbitrage entails using certain small opportunities to profit during a trade.

At first glance, the transactions being used seem to provide very insignificant profits, but when done on a larger scale, the profit becomes quite substantial and even lucrative. In the world of finance, arbitrage is done by purchasing stocks on one particular market and immediately selling what is purchased to another market that provides an opportunity for a profit of whatever size.

For example, shares of a certain company are being sold for $9.00 in the New York Stock exchange. Meanwhile in the London Stock exchange it is being sold for only $8.50.

This is an arbitrage opportunity or an arb. A trader, who practices arbitrage, or an arbitrageur, would purchase the London Stock Exchange shares and then sell the same amount on the New York Stock exchange. This would entail a 50-cent profit for every share. While this seems to be a minuscule amount, it can translate into a huge sum when shares are traded in large quantities.

How can Arbitrage be Applied to Sports Betting?

In the sports betting world, arbitrage can be employed by taking into consideration the differences present in bookmakers’ odds. Profit is made certain by making bets on each option in the sports event that would entail profits for the arbitrageur whoever would win.

An arbitrageur would comb through the different odds presented by bookmakers on each participant of the sports event, and bet on each one. Whatever is the result of the event, a profit is guaranteed. Just like with its finance counterpart, sports arbitrage is done is large volumes to provide substantial profits, taking full advantage of the arbs, also known as overbrokes, underrounds, and surebets.

For example, on a certain football match, Team A has odds of 11/8 with Bookmaker A. Meanwhile Team B has odds of 4/5 with Bookmaker B. Taking the difference between the two bookmakers translates into a profit of around 2.4%. An arbitrageur would place bets in proportion with the odds. For example, $1000 would be invested in this arb.

The amount would be divided according to the proportion of the odds so that around $431 would be placed on Team A, and then around $569 would be placed on Team B. If Team A wins, the arbitrageur would get around $1023.63, and if Team A wins, the arbitrageur would get $1024.20. This means that the particular arb would entail a profit of around $23 to $24 if an investment of $1000 is made.

Such scenarios are what many investors have been trying out today, yielding favorable results. With sports arbitrage betting, profits are ensured without risks of losing.

To learn more about sports arbitrage betting, there are several websites devoted to this betting technique. A simple search on sports arbitrage betting on a leading search engine would lead one to a vast sea of information about the betting process.

Basic Sports Betting Principles You Must Understand To Win

Basic Sports Betting Principles



The Tools Of The Trade

The tips below are the basic Sports betting principles that you must understand to win because you clearly don’t want to be like most novice gamblers who end up losing their proverbial shirts yearly.

And most failures can be directly pointed at poor money management skills and practices but many more of such failures are also due to an overall complete lacking knowledge with regards to how to basically handicap that particular sport that they are looking at betting and the factors or situations that come into play during the particular season.


First of all, a “Point Spread” is defined as a number that you place on an event for betting reasons and you often express it in terms of the number of points that one side must spot the other as a means of making the playing field even on both ends.

This includes both the favorite and underdog, in most cases they will always attach a money-line to the same game so that one can usually wager on either side of the coin be it the favorite or the underdog to win without having to lay points, keep in mind that its usual football and basketball games that have point spreads.

If there is only one single bit of advice that you take from this article, I hope it is this…Keep your eyes and ears open!! I bet you’re wondering “huh” right about now, aren’t you?

When I say keep your eyes on the ball and ears on the ground and open I am referring to the radio, the TV, and the local newspapers in your area, often local team beat writers glean information from team players or team sources and use that same information for their local radio or TV shows or for the articles that they write for the local newspapers, this same information can be very valuable to you as a gambler if you are able to dissect every bit of information.

What is important and what is not important and then decisively act on the critical info before the rest of the universe does, this gives you what is referred to as an “edge”.

Listen to sports talk radio

Get in the habit of having the local sports talk shows on the radio when you are driving or working at home on your computer, know what time the local nightly sports show comes on television in your area, pay special attention to the sports section of the local newspaper each morning over coffee or breakfast.

The idea is to absorb as much info as you can during the week and before the game starts, know who is coming back from an injury or who is actually nursing a nagging knee or chest or even ankle injury that may affect and slow them down, know if there are any “cluster” of injuries along the important offensive or crack whip defensive lines who are direct impacters of the upcoming game, know if your local team is playing at home or away and if there are any possible weather concerns.

The point of this matter is that you have ton wealth of information at your fingertips with regard to the local college and professional teams in your area and in most cases the info can be easily accessed by only you before the rest of the putters in public learns about it and you can very well use this to your own advantage, by no means am I saying to disregard the rest of the teams in the league and not care what is going on with them, what I am totally saying is that if you want to defeat the online posted point spreads you have to look for an edge and often this can be found by concentrating on local information about your local teams.

I advocate using multiple “outs” for placing wagers as a means of garnering the best possible point spread on any game you intend wagering on, in this day and age a gambler has access to many offshore sportsbooks and it’s a good idea to utilize at least three or four of these for line shopping purposes, but remember to do your homework before simply signing up with just any online sportsbook, most are reputable but some are not.

Basic Sports Betting Principles – How to use local and online sportsbooks

However, it is also a very good idea to have a local book that you can place wagers with for the express purpose of wagering against local teams, remember that local teams are also generally popular teams to wager on for the local run of the mill gamblers in your area, meaning that you must usually lay a higher point spread number if wagering on a local team thru a local book, thus the rule of thumb is to use online sportsbooks when wagering ON local teams but use local books when wagering AGAINST local teams.

Basic Sports Betting Principles – How to defeat the points spreads

If you want to defeat the point spread you have to remain ahead of the proverbial curve, this means that you must out-work other gamblers with regard to having and acting on information before they do, I personally do a ton of off-season work and I recommend that you do the same, for example, it’s a good idea to go over each teams schedule as soon as it is released for the upcoming season and finding potential bad spots for each team.

By bad spots in the schedule I mean taking note of the potential pitfalls or scheduling quirks that might affect a teams performance, for example, when a team is playing on the road for a third straight week, or when a team has played two or three straight up divisional games and are in line to play a non conference team next, or if a team is supposed to be playing on a short week because they just played on Monday night or if a team has been bouncing back and forth from the east coast to the west coast or visa versa.

Basic Sports Betting Principles – Study the schedule.

Know in advance to the start of the new season by studying the schedule if a team is revenge minded against another team for an embarrassing loss or for knocking them out of the playoffs the previous year, try to study and concentrate on historical data from past divisional match ups, the reason is because divisional teams face each other at least twice yearly which means that often you can find a team that for one reason or another continues to dominate another.

Know in advance to the start of the new season what players a team lost to free agency or trades and what players they added via the draft and/or free agency and don’t forget to consider any coaching changes, a complete turnover in coaching staffs is a hard thing to overcome and often means that a team will struggle in the early going of a new season because that team is still trying to learn a new system.

Use the information at your disposal

The astute gambler will then take all of the information he or she has gathered during most the off season and will prior to the start of the new season make up a set of power ratings which are then updated on a weekly basis once the regular season starts, a smart sports gambler will have a set personal schedule that they adhere to once the season is under way, keeping in mind that your off season work has already pinpointed potential scheduling problems and you have a set of power ratings in place, you can now use this information to better evaluate the opening Monday morning lines for the next week.

The Injury Report

Basic Sports Betting Principles – The Injury Report – Monday morning is also a good time to check the injury reports of each team as well as advance weather reports for the upcoming weekend’s slate of games, as the week progresses you want to continue to monitor the posted point spread as well as the latest injury and weather reports if you have already isolated a contest that has perceived value to you and that team is listed as the favorite it is usually best to make your wager as soon as possible, on the other hand, if you like a doggie in a particular contest its best to wait until almost game time to place your wager.

The reasoning has to do with the emphatic way “Joe Public” bettors wager, which is usually on the listed favorite, by placing your wager early in the week (if you like the favorite) you are locking in your line before the general public has a chance to move the point spread upward, on the flip side if you like the doggie you want the public to drive the line upward so that you can get as many points as possible.

I could easily try to go on and on with this article but the end result would resemble a sportsbook, hopefully, you will take some of this advice to heart, the one item that I did not nearly touch on in this article but is probably the most important aspect of gambling is money management, without some sort of game plan with regard to protecting your bankroll, you will surely lose your shirt and not be around placing wagers at seasons end.

Please refer to another article that I have already written simply entitled The secret to Sports betting money management, the article explains in detail the system that I personally utilize as a means of protecting my bankroll over the course of a very tremendous long season.

Last Advice

One last bit of advice, remember that the betting public is generally wrong which is the reason Las Vegas is still standing, meaning that you should do your homework and follow your instincts and not those of the talking heads in the media or those of your drinking buddies.

Soccer Proposition Bets

Soccer Proposition bets which are commonly referred to as Soccer Prop Bets are much different than your typical money line and over/under type bets.

Soccer Proposition Bets, Soccer Prop Bets

Intro

For one, proposition bets are not necessarily just placed on the outcome of a game, a proposition bet could be almost anything.

You can make proposition bets on things like who is going to score the first goal, who will get a yellow card first, and a whole range of other intriguing bets. Proposition bets are useful for an experienced soccer fan who knows the ins and outs of at least one of the teams on the pitch.

You need to be at least a little bit knowledgeable regarding the teams that are playing in the match, otherwise, you will probably end up making a silly bet, like betting on a defender to score the first goal. If you’re not familiar with the teams involved in a bet you’re considering, try a reference site like ours for scores and odds or consider making a bet involving clubs you’re more familiar with.

Soccer Proposition betting or soccer Prop bets is very non-traditional and adds a bunch of new elements to the scope of betting that was not really reached by regular bets.

Live Soccer Proposition Bets


Since a lot of sites, like Bovada and Bet365 USA, are offering live, in-game soccer betting, there are even more options when it comes to proposition betting.

It works the same basic way no matter what. Of course, if you bet on Kaka to score a goal, and he has already scored once in the game, the odds will change considerably and the money you win can vary greatly from what it would have been if you bet on him before he scored his first goal.

This is the same with just about everything. And of course, as the game progresses, the odds are continuously changing as well. Live proposition bets just make them that much more versatile and easy to use.

Soccer Proposition bets, or soccer pro bets especially while the game is going on, are usually for more experienced bettors and fans who know what is going on out on the field.

If a person tries to start making prop bets on two teams he has never even heard of, chances are he is not going to fare very well simply because, how are you supposed to bet on the likeliest next scorer, when you do not even know who the team’s potential scorers are. You have to remember, proposition bets are very versatile in sports betting.

The type of soccer prop bets that you are able to make changes with each and every site. While one site may let you bet on the first player to receive a yellow card, another site may have something completely different in their betting options. There is no right and wrong, better or worse proposition. Whatever bet you the bettor feel most comfortable with is the best to go with, always stick with your gut feeling.

Best Sites for Soccer Proposition Bets

The best soccer betting sites for Soccer Prop Bets are the best for a lot of different reasons. What sets Bovada and Bet365 USA apart from other soccer betting sites is their extreme coverage.

Both of these sites offer soccer betting on almost every soccer match around the world. Their sites are easy to use and understand and signing up is easy too. In the US, most bettors flock to Bovada mainly because it is legal to use in the US.

For a lot of the rest of the world, Bet365 USA is the top site; Bet365’s USA influence in soccer is very evident as they sponsor many teams and other soccer-related events.

A new form of betting called Live betting is a part of both of these two sites and really adds a whole new spin to betting online. Both of these sites have enticing sign-up bonuses for new depositors which is yet another reason people flock to these sites so consistently.

Another perk about these two sites is that they are much more than just a soccer betting site. Both Bovada and Bet365 have poker and casinos on-site as well.

Bovada


Bovada is probably the most popular soccer betting site in the US for US bettors. They offer to bet on almost every league in the world. Most notably, Bovada offers betting on the English Premier League, Italy Serie A, Germany Bundesliga, and France Ligue 1. There are many additional leagues and competitions that are able to be bet on, and most nations with leagues are able to be bet on.

Bovada has its proposition bets separated by team, game, and player for the organization’s sake. This means that if you want to make a bet on a game between Arsenal and Birmingham City, you can make a prop bet saying that Arsenal will score first, and at the same time make a bet that Robin van Persie will score the first goal. These two bets are under two different tabs which makes them very easily distinguishable.

Bovada also offers Live Betting. Live Betting is a relatively new function on most betting sites. It allows you to make proposition, moneyline, and over/under bets even after the match has begun. As the game goes on and goals are scored the odds become different. It adds a whole new element to betting because now you are able to bet on games that you missed the kickoff of. It also changes the odds which can work for or against a person who chooses to wait until later to place a bet. Live betting also makes watching a game more interesting because how a game is panning out may alter the way you decide to bet.

Bovada offers a 10% sign up bonus for new members. This means that on your first deposit you will receive 10% of that amount added to your account in bonus money. This is just a way of luring prospective members. The bonus money cannot be cashed until a set of rules is met. On Bovada the sign-up bonus money plus the money you initially deposited must be rolled over once before any money can be cashed. If the rules are not met, Bovada will take away all bonus money plus any money that was made with bonus money. Bonuses, when used within the rule regulations, are very helpful for someone who is just beginning to bet on sports.

Bet365 USA


Bet365 USA is a very popular sports betting site all over the world except for the US. It offers a comprehensive set of leagues able to be bet on. Like Bovada, bettors can place wagers on the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Italian Serie A, and so on. They offer your typical wager options like Over/Under, Money Line Betting, and an assortment of proposition bets.

Like Bovada as well, Bet365 USA also offers their version of live, in-game betting. It is very similar to Bovada’s as well, which is probably why these two sites are on the upper tier of soccer betting websites. While in live betting you are able to bet on halftime and full-time results on virtually every game that is going on. In addition to betting on half and full-time scores, you are able to bet on what side will score the next goal and the over/under is also able to be bet on. Bet365’s live betting is very comprehensive, you can even bet on what team will get 3, 5, 7, and 9 corners while at the same time betting on what team will receive the final corner of the game.

Bet 365 offers a new player bonus of 100% on initial deposits up to $200. The deposit bonus’ minimum is $20. To bet with your bonus you must rollover your qualifying deposit once. In order to receive any money from the site in the form of a payout, a player must rollover both the deposit and bonus 3 times before anything is able to be cashed out.

This is different than Bovada which only requires you to roll over your bonus and deposit once, but Bovada gives players the option to deposit much more than $200 on their initial deposit to still qualify for the bonus. If bonus terms are not met than Bet365 USA will relinquish any bonus money earned. Bet365 USA changes their bonuses fairly regularly so if you were to look back at the site after a while, chances are that the bonuses will have been changed a little bit.

Summary


These two sites, one for US bettors and one for bettors from outside of the US, are two of the most respected soccer betting sites around. These sites are known for their comprehensive coverage of leagues all over the world as well as their intriguing sign-up bonuses that draw more and more members daily.

Real Money Soccer Betting

Real Money Soccer Betting is Legal Almost Everywhere

Real Money Soccer Betting

intro


A lot of people, especially those in North America, think that betting on soccer online is illegal. It is not, with the recent passing of PASPA in 2018 which legalized sports betting in the US. Nearly every state has legalized sports betting or is in the process of doing so. Some sites do not offer their services to players in the US but sites like Bodog do. In most other nations around the world, there are very few restrictions on soccer betting.

It would make little sense if there were a lot of restrictions on soccer betting because there are soccer leagues everywhere. Of course, there are restrictions on the amount of money you are able to have and cash out from sites, but those hardly ever make dealing with the websites more difficult. Soccer betting is growing increasingly popular and more and more sites arrive on the scene every year.

Depositing Money


In order for real money soccer betting to happen and for you to bet on soccer matches with money, a player must first register with the site and then deposit their own money. Registering with a soccer betting site is usually quite simple.

The player simply supplies basic background information and information on where they reside and contact information and the like. After registering, most sites offer a bonus for your first deposit on the site. For example, a website may offer a 20% bonus on your initial deposit which means that if you deposit a certain amount, the site will give you 20% of that money to you for free in addition. These bonuses are simply ways to lure new members to their site. If you play within the bonus rules it can increase your balance on the site by a lot.

Sites like Bet365 USA and Bodog do not offer any maximum amount of money that is allowed to be deposited but through the different ways of depositing money, there are restrictions. Every form of depositing on a site has some form of maximum that a player is allowed to deposit at one time. So even though Bodog does not have a maximum restriction, the forms of depositing do.

Real Money Soccer Betting Forms of depositing are Credit Card, e-wallets like PayPal or MyPayLinQ, wire transfers, or by using a digital pin. Each form of depositing, as previously mentioned, has a maximum amount that you are able to deposit at one time. But at the same rate, most forms of depositing have a minimum amount that must be deposited.

Most forms of depositing have a maximum amount that someone is allowed to deposit per week and per month as well. These restrictions all vary with each different form of depositing. Most sites make depositing money very simple and in a lot of cases very quick as well. Some sites have rapid transfers which are like money transfers, just a whole lot faster. This is for the convenience of the player. This way a player does not have to wait 2-4 days for their money, rather, they can have it show up on their balance immediately. Each and every site have different forms of rapid transfers and most even have different forms of depositing, but most of the time, sites follow a general set of guidelines for depositing methods.

Getting Paid in real money soccer betting


Everyone knows that the main motive in soccer betting is to make money. More important than actually making that money is how you can get the money into your pockets. Soccer betting sites are making this process easier and easier all the time. After an initial deposit is made, on most sites, there is some sort of free money bonus that has then become started. If a player is taking part in the bonus, no money is able to be cashed out until the rules of the bonus are met.

Each site has different terms and conditions to their bonus but most often it involves the rolling over of bonus money. Rolling is, for example, if you receive $70 in bonus money; in order to have any of that money, you must earn an additional $70. That is an example of rolling over bonus money just one time. Some sites do only require a one-time roll over, but some other sites may require you to roll it over additional times. These rules exist to avoid scammers who would make an account on the site, make a deposit and earn bonus money, and then cash out all of the money and never use the site again.

After the real money soccer betting, the bonus money situation is taken care of, cashing out funds becomes a lot simpler. As you earn money you are able to cash out and deposit money as freely as you want. Just like depositing, cashing out also has different forms and it is important as a player to decide which form of cashing out suits you best. Each form offers a maximum and minimum amount that is able to be cashed out, and each form also has a time limit on how fast your money will reach you. Cashing out and depositing money is very simple on most sites and is made to avoid any problems.

On most sites there are limitations on how mjuch money a player is allowed to cash out weekly and monthly.

Real money soccer betting on each site comes with its own terms which are always different, but there is always some kind of limitations that exist. People bet on Soccer in order to make a lot of their income. Cashing out is made easier for players because the easier you can make money on a site, the more quickly you are going to come back to that site. By making cashing out easier on sites, each site is made a little bit easier to use.

Real money soccer betting is growing increasingly popular and with the addition of new ways of betting it is always changing. Each site tries to make their way of betting on soccer easier than the other sites, so they are competing to get your business. Bonuses are another way that sites bring in new members. These bonuses are very helpful to the player if they are used correctly. There are a lot of perks that make betting on soccer online easy and alluring.

Soccer Money Line Betting

Soccer Money Line Betting – Betting on a money line is one of the more commonplace ways to vote in soccer and almost every other sport too.

Soccer Money Line Betting

Intro

The money line defines an underdog by having a plus (+) symbol in front of the team name and defines the favorite by a minus (-) sign next to the team name. What is interesting and unique about betting on the money line on soccer matches is that the bettor can also wager on the possibility of a tie too.

Soccer is one of the only sports where you can legitimately wager on a tie because, in the regular season of almost every soccer league around the world, a 1-1 score at the end of the 90 minutes simply means that the game is over and no one wins. Obviously, if the money line only had a favorite and an underdog every single person would lose their bet and that really would not be all that fair. Money line bets are placed before kickoff time and follow the odds that are listed on each site for each game. A lot of websites more recently are offering live in-game soccer betting and the money line is able to be utilized after kickoff. Of course, if a goal is scored, or something to that effect happens, the odds change accordingly.

Soccer Money Line Betting Example

If you are betting on the money line on a game between Arsenal and Blackburn this may be a little bit like how it might look…

Arsenal: +235
Westham: -200
Draw:+100

Each of these three lines is saying something about the game. If you bet on Arsenal to win the game, you will win $10 for every $23.50 you wager. If Westham is able to pull off the upset and win, the bettor will receive $20 for every $10 wagered. That is why knowing a lot about teams who can cause potential upsets is nice. And of course, the draw, which is unlikely to happen according to the plus (+) sign. If a draw does end up happening the bettor is rewarded with $10 for every $10 that he wagers.

In another example, I have Sevilla in a bout against Real Zaragoza.

Real Zaragoza: -250
Sevilla: +180
Draw: +120

Soccer Money Line Betting
SEVILLE, SPAIN – MAY 27: Adriano Correia (L) of Sevilla shoots past Cesar Sanchez of Zaragoza during the Primera Liga match between Sevilla and Real Zaragoza at the Sanchez Pizjuan stadium on May 27, 2007 in Seville, Spain. (Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images)

In this example it is clearly indicated that Zaragoza is the under dog and looks like they do not have a great shot at winning. If they do pull off the upset though, the bettor who wagered on them will receive $25 for every $10 wagered. If Sevilla, the favorite, wins the bettor will win $10 for every $18 wagered. In this fictional case a draw is not likely to happen and the bettor who wagers on a draw will win $10 for every $12 that you bet. Betting on the money line becomes much more difficult when teams that are very similar in fire-power and statistics are playing each other. It becomes a lot harder because a game with such high volatility can yield almost any result.

Expert Moneyline Betting Strategy


The Experts at Bettinghits.com explain online sports betting options (example: money lines, point spreads, totals, etc.) and then show the best strategic approach for each. Their advice for soccer money lines is to make wagers at any site offering better than the PinnacleSports.com no-vig price.

To help you understand why, right now I’m looking at the moneylines on a German soccer match. The bookmaker’s odds work out to payout percentages of:

Coral (93.7%), Bet365 (93.9%), Ladbrokes (94.0%), Bovada (95.9%), BetVictor (96.4%), Pinnacle (98.1%).

Notice that Pinnacle has the lowest markup. They also happen to have the highest betting limits at $28,000 per bet and allow multiple max bets too. In short, Pinnacle is a discount bookie that takes wagers from the largest and most successful punters in the world.

Though often having the best odds, Pinnacle does not appeal to casual bettors. This is because they don’t have bonuses, free bet offers, good parlay odds, etc. the same way recreational sportsbooks do. As a result their odds are the sharpest (closest to accurate) as fan bias does not influence the said odds. With this in mind there is a decent strategy that can be used. Gain information from Pinnacle, and make +EV bets at other online betting sites such as www.bovada.lv.

Soccer Money Line Betting – Calculating No-Vig Probabilities


All money lines have an associated implied probability. This is simply a fancy term that means how often a bet needs to win to average break even. The formula for this is risk/return=implied probability where the return is stake +win. For example $100 on +117 is risk $100 to win $117, here the return is $217 ($100 stake + $117 win).

Soccer Money Line Betting

On a recent Bundesliga match (Wolfsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt) Pinnacle had the odds

Home +117
Draw +270
Away +247

Using risk/return=implied probability I calculated implied probabilities for each as:

Home +117 is $100/$217= 46.08%
Draw +270 is $100/$370= 27.03%
Away +247 is$100/$347= 28.82%

Notice 46.08%+27.03%+28.82%= 101.93%. The reason these total over 100% is the bookmaker advantage called vig. This is how bookies make their profit. To remove vig all we need to do is divide each implied probability by their total percent market, in this case 101.93%.

Home +117 is $100/$217= 46.08%/101.93%= 45.21%
Draw +270 is $100/$370= 27.03%/101.93%= 26.52%
Away +247 is$100/$347= 28.82%/101.93%= 28.27%

Notice the above probabilities now total 100%. This is tells us the probabilities above are the true odds Pinnacle was working with before adding vig.

Soccer Money Line Betting – Change Probabilities to Moneyline Odds


Our next step is to change the probabilities above to Moneyline odds. To do this we first take 1/probability=European odds. So for 45.21% that is 1/0.4521=2.21. To then change European odds to an American Moneyline there are two formulas to use:

If the odds are at least 2.00 use: 100*(Decimal odds -1)
If the odds are less than 2.00 use: -100/(Decimal odds – 1)
Using this math I determine:

Home +117 is $100/$217= 46.08%/101.93%= 45.21% | is +121
Draw +270 is $100/$370= 27.03%/101.93%= 26.52% | is +277
Away +247 is$100/$347= 28.82%/101.93%= 28.27% | is +254

The above figures are called no-vig money lines. The IG recommended strategy is to now go shop betting sites such as Bovada, Bet365, and Skybet and others. If you find any site offering money lines better than the Pinnacle no-vig money lines above you have found a +EV bet.

Soccer Betting

These Soccer Betting tips that we provide are for the top soccer leagues around the world included is over 80 leagues and over 700 matches.

soccer Betting

Intro

A little something unknown to many folks in the US is that soccer betting is as popular in Europe as the NFL is in the States. Within Europe alone, there are over 50 soccer leagues, which means that games are going on almost every day. Betting on soccer is a lot like betting on American sports like hockey and baseball because all three utilize a money line. Use our soccer predictions to win when you are looking to bet on soccer.

Difference between Soccer Betting and betting on other US sports

The main difference between betting on soccer and betting on any other American sport is that in soccer, you can choose either participating team to bet on as well as betting on a tie. Wagering on a tie in some cases is even more beneficial than actually wagering on one single team.

Money Line


The first and in a lot of people’s eyes, the easiest way to bet is something called a money line. On the money line, a bettor can place a wager or bet on one of three things, one which is of the two participating teams, as well as the possibility of a tie or draws in the match. For example, if Chelsea FC is playing Liverpool, the money line may look something like this:

Chelsea: -240
Draw: +100
Liverpool:+220

In this instance, it is saying that for a bet placed on Chelsea, who is the favorite in this example, the bettor risks $24 for the chance to win $10. But if you wager on Liverpool who is a slight underdog, you are flirting with the possibility of making $22 for every $10 wagered.

And if you as the bettor chose to wager on the possibility of a draw, you are risking $10 to win $10. The money line is a straightforward concept to understand and is probably one of the best and most common ways to bet on soccer in the world. Another good example of a money line is this:

Arsenal:+130
Draw:+200
Manchester City:+190

In this particular example, it is evident that there are two underdogs. Now, if you are used to American sports, especially with betting on American sports, you know that having two underdogs never happens.

With soccer, this is possible because there is the ever-existing possibility of a tie game. In this example, if the bettor decided to wager on Arsenal, they are running the risk of winning $13 for every $10 wagered.

If they bet on a tie, they are hoping to make $20 for every $10 wagered. And of course, if you are betting on Manchester City, you have the odds of making $19 for every $10 wagered. The money line, although a bit different for soccer, is a great and fun way to wager or bet because of the looming possibility of a draw.

Using the Over/Under Effectively In Soccer Betting


When wagering an over/under type bet in terms of soccer, a bettor is wagering his money on the number of total goals that will be scored in a game.

For example, if the over/under in a particular game match was 1.5 goals, you as a bettor have to choose whether to bet on the above, which means that you expect at least two goals in the game. If at least two goals are scored, you placed a successful bet.

If you take the under, you are expecting no more than one solitary goal to be scored in the entire match.

Using the over/under technique is very smart for people who know a lot about the team(s) playing. If you are trying to bet on a team like Chelsea, who has a potent offense, more often than not, it is always smarter to wager on the over because of the high possibility of many goals to be scored.

But if you are wagering on a game with a team like Stoke City whose offense is not nearly as potent or high-powered as Chelsea’s, it may be your best bet to wager on the under. Of course, each bet is situational, and a lot is riding on how well the team is doing lately and things like that, but these are just broad simplistic overviews.

Proposition Bets


Although proposition bets are not always available, they often make betting on games fascinating and, in a lot of instances, much more interactive. Proposition bets exist in all forms, for example, the bettor can place bets on things like the score at halftime, the player to score first, the team to score first, and a multitude of other possibilities.

You can even wager on things like the first team/player to receive a booking. Proposition bets are not recommended for new bettors who do not know much about soccer. Instead, they are usually placed by a bettor who knows the ins and outs, statistically, about one or both of the participating teams.

Not for the novice

I consider propositional bets in soccer betting to be some of the most difficult to make. Still, of course, with the high risk in this area of betting, there is also the possibility of a large reward usually.

The fun thing about proposition betting is that you can bet the whole time a game is going on, for example, even though it may be halftime during one game, you can wager at halftime how many goals you think will be scored in the second half, or how many total goals there will be in the game after the second half. The possibilities with proposition bets are seemingly endless.

The Popularity of betting on soccer

Soccer betting is probably the most popular form of sports betting in the world. Europeans love to bet on their soccer, and for American bettors who do not know everything about soccer, not to worry because the money line is a straightforward concept of betting that seems to transcend different sports. Using the money line is a great way to plunge yourself into the world of soccer betting initially.

And as you bet more and gain more experience with Soccer betting, you can advance to things like betting on the over/under in a game and even making proposition bets when available. From the outside, soccer betting looks a bit more tricky than anything most people have experienced, but it is a lot more comfortable to understand than most people think.

Beginners Sports Betting Systems You Cannot Profit Without

Beginners Sports Betting Systems You Cannot Profit Without – If you are a novice this is the place to start After learning these tactics, scroll down to the more advanced ones in the next lesson.

Beginners Sports Betting Systems

Intro

Thousands of people from around the world bet on sports for a number of reasons. Many of them do it for pure fun or to make the game more exciting, while others do it for money.

Well, whatever your reason for betting on sports, it is important to note that contrary to what many have known, sports betting is not really a “get-rich-quick-scheme”.

If you want to succeed or win consistently, you must exert hard work, and consider solid preparation, enough knowledge of the sport you are betting on, strong money management skills, and of course discipline.
Below are some beginning sport betting systems that can help you increase your winning percentage. Just note and understand each one of them for these sports betting tips may make your sports gambling profitable.

Sports Betting System #1: Knowledge of Sports You Bet On

When considering sports betting, it is very crucial to acquire a very good idea of what you are doing. As often said, jumping into sports betting without a proper system in place is suicidal.

You will just be throwing away your money. So if you don’t have the knowledge on the sport you bet on, then don’t proceed. Go to someone that does understand the nature of the sport and the sports betting system they subscribe to or read some how-to books or articles online about sports betting. And, if you are going to wager on a particular sport like NFL football betting for example, then make sure that you know all you can about it.

Sports Betting System #2: Proper Money Management

A proper money management plays a very crucial role in every gambling game. This is no doubt one of the most important aspects of betting on sports, but this is also somehow one of the most neglected. The first key to solid money management is to make sure that that you are not going to bet more than you can afford to lose.

This is just one of the best sports betting systems you could possibly implement. The most important thing to remember when betting on sports is to save a space for your extra money for betting. To put is simply, try to set aside a certain portion of your money for betting and if possible stick with that bankroll, win or lose.

Note that although you bet on sports for money, winning money on sports is actually not a sprint. Based on the psychological studies, if you bet your entire bankroll on one game and you lose, chances are you are going to chase your losses. But, if you tried to spread your bankroll among a number of smaller bets and you succeeded in doing so, you are more likely to generate a profit in the end, if and only if you do the proper homework. If you are thinking of chasing your losses, don’t do it. As what many experts have said, there is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day.

Sports Betting Systems #3: Discipline

This one of the important sports betting systems for beginners and can’t be stressed enough. One thing to note here is that it is very easy to lose control when betting on sports, especially after a few tough losses. So if you find yourself losing more money in betting on sports, try to disciple yourself. Don’t get upset or double or triple your bets for that may only dig you deeper into losing. Place your bet and if you can, don’t watch the game. This is extremely difficult for most bettors because they love the action. No successful sports betting system exists without discipline. Use it and you will come out a winner.

Beating The Sports Betting Number…Can It Be Done?

Beating the sports betting number is the most challenging skill that most bettors want to learn. They believe that beating the number consistently will boost their win percentage, giving them a higher profit probability.
Beating the sports betting number can be difficult especially if you have no knowledge about the game, the players, the teams, and everything about betting on sports.

Beginners Sports Betting Systems

Does the house always win?

Many experts have noted that there are some instances that no matter what game you play, you will always find the numbers in favor of the house. This is also true in casino gambling as well as in slot machines. Perhaps the main difference lies in the fact that the sports betting numbers are slightly higher than the numbers on casino gambling that over the long term, the sports bettors can make between 8 to 10 percent back on their original investment.

So if you are one of those who bet on sports for money or profit, I bet you would be happy to know that there are some sports betting systems that may help you beat the sports betting number. One of the most important things you must take note of and do is to search for the most reliable sports books available.

Searching for the most reliable sports books in today’s highly technological era can be quite puzzling, with lots of sports betting sites out there on the web (and offline) claiming to be the most reputed betting portal available. Because of this, it is best for you to read some reviews of the available sports betting sites and develop your sports betting system around your favorites.

Beginners Sports Betting Systems – What determines the Lines

Also remember that the sports betting numbers are generally not determined by the sports books. Rather, the numbers are a measure of likelihood that has been created by the general public opinion of an outcome of a game or match. They are formed based on a number of perception factors and can be changed if too many people are placing bets on one team.

Once you’ve found the right sportsbooks, the next thing to do is to shop for the best sports betting numbers and lines. There will be more discrepancies in the sports betting numbers on different sports at different sportsbooks at different times.

For example, in the National Football League (NFL) Betting, you may find very similar numbers at most of the football betting shops you visit, while on college sports and daily events like the NBA, there is a possibility that you will find different sports betting number or lines at different sportsbooks. The more games in the season the better your chances of getting varied sports betting numbers.

Why Sportsbooks Change Lines

Well, the main cause of such differences is the fact that most sports books change their sports betting numbers or lines according to the betting patterns of their customers.

As I’ve said earlier, the sports betting numbers can be skewed if too many bettors are laying their bets on one particular team. As such, it is then not entirely uncommon for you to locate two or three-point differences in the numbers once line movements occur.

But when you are betting your hard-earned money, obtaining the best sports betting numbers must be a top priority. This sports betting system, when done consistently, always turns a profit.

Beginners Sports Betting Systems – Multiple Books Strategy

Many bettors further say that the magic number on sports betting is probably somewhere around five books.

However, if you only have one account, obtaining two more sets of lines to look for every game should make a big difference to your game. But, if you are in doubt with your sports betting numbers, many professional bettors agree that it is best to bet on the underdog than the favorite. This is a very simple strategy that will make you a money loser in the long run, but for recreational bets, this may suffice.

Check out our Advanced Sports Bet Systems

Online Poker Success Elements

These Online Poker Success Elements should help you win any hand at poker if you follow them heartfeltly.

online poker success elements


Intro

Self-control and discipline are essential elements to success in Texas Holdem poker at online casinos. Players who easily go on “tilt” (chase bad beats with big bets on bad poker hands) will also go out of the game quickly at online casinos.

The best online casino poker players have a mature attitude about the game and realize that bad beats and dry spells with weak cards are part of the game that must be accepted. Online casino poker players who allow emotions to cloud their judgments never last long or enjoy long-term success in poker.

One of the most important skills to bring to the online casino poker table is the ability to maintain focus on a long-range goal and plan. The best and most successful online casino poker players are thinking several hands ahead rather than allowing themselves to be drained emotionally and monetarily by just one individual hand. The online casino player that has the ability to think the long term can better control himself and prevent costly mistakes.

Another skill that is essential at the online casino poker table is nerve/courage. Even the most disciplined of players must occasionally make a bold or gutsy move to keep his opponents guessing and to take advantage of the right opportunities. Winning online casino poker players do not allow themselves to give off patterned and easy to read plays or even online tells.

How to win

Ultimately, to succeed at online casino poker, a player must have well-rounded expertise at all aspects of the game along with the ability to constructively “change gears” and make himself difficult to read. To succeed at online casino poker a player must be able to not only show discipline and self-control, but he must be able to stick to the plan. That is very often easier said than done.

Sticking to the game plan when you have just suffered a bad beat is something very difficult to do. Going on tilt is easy to do, but it is something that will ruin your online casino poker play. Maintaining focus and practicing discipline and self-control is important in all aspects of online gambling, not just poker.

It shows up more in poker though because at any time during No-Limit Texas Holdem a player can go broke on a single hand. That makes it of paramount importance that self-control and discipline are maintained and practiced at all times at the online casino poker table.

Pots Odds in Online Casino Poker


When playing casino online poker there are a lot of factors that an online casino poker player must take into account at the poker table. Among the biggest is for a casino online poker player to consider something simple, yet extremely relevant to Texas holdem poker strategy, and that is the size of the pot.

Texas Holdem winning strategy

There are many reasons why a Texas Holdem online casino poker player should take the size of the pot at the poker table under serious consideration but the most important reason that the pot size determines your overall play and the risk and reward factor of the hand, and that is critical to your long-term success.

When a Texas holdem online casino player is involved in poker hands in which a lot of online casino poker players have put money and poker chips into the pot, those poker hands are likely to have excellent pot odds.

That means there is enough money in the pot to make it worthwhile to play. The crap hands that a Texas Holdem player usually would have thrown into the muck might be worth playing if the pot odds are high enough.

Let’s look at an online casino Texas Holdem poker example. If you had a hand like suited connectors of 7-8 and there was already $100 in the pot and you only had to put another $20 in then your pot odds would dictate a play although there would be no doubt you would be trailing in the hand at this point.

What you are trying to do with pot odds in this situation is to win a huge pot with a drawing hand. That is why if you had a strong hand like Aces, Kings, etc, you would not want to let people limp into the pot for a small amount. You want hands like that suited connector to fold.

Online Poker Success

Online casino poker players face more difficult decisions in terms of pot odds than those players at a land-based casino for one simple reason. Online casino poker players are more likely to call with anything and that makes limping in much more attractive.

With bigger pot odds you want to see more flops and get in cheaply if you are able. If you play at a land-based casino it is unlikely that you will continually get people to limp into the pot. You will get more folds and the pot odds will be less attractive for those drawing hands. There is little doubt that online casino poker is more of an action game that encourages people to see the flop.

This is a good thing if you have a drawing hand but a bad thing if you let people hang around with your strong hands. Understand this one major point and you will already gain an advantage over many players. Pot odds are something you can understand if you remember this one simple point.

The Sure Bets method that guarantees a win on any match.

The sure bets method – Hello everyone, I want to show you today all the benefits of the online sports betting by showing you one of the most important things in sports betting on the internet- the sure bets.

the sure bets method

What is a sure bet? Well, in the internet there are a lot of sports betting sites, every site has his own odds (most of the time they are quite similar), sometimes there some differenses between the odds of the sites about a particular game.

In that case, we can find a way to lay a bet on different teams and win no matter what the result is.

We can lay a bet about the home team to win, we can lay a bet that the away team will win, or we can lay a bet that the result will be a draw.

In any case, we will eventually earn money because in some games there is a big difference between the different sports betting sites, differences that allow us to earn money on our bets, no matter what the final result is.

That is also can be recognized as arbitrage bets because there are significant differences between the odds.

The advantages of the sure bets method.

What is the big advantege of the sure bets? the advantege is that we can know our profit even befor the game ends. how?

Well, there is a mathematical method that we can use to show it how to find the sure bet, we can also know what is the percentage of our profit.

Today there are some sites that find the sure bets and calculating the profit that we can earn from it.

These sites can be found online today but you need to be careful to make sure that you find the legitimate ones.

Arbitrage betting takes a lot of time and effort to pull off so if you have no clue or you are a beginner, you are better off letting the professionals do all the heavy lifting and give you ready made tips.

Check out our service here

If you have any question we will be happy to help.

4 Ways to Cheat at Sports Betting

4 Ways To Cheat At Sports Betting

Cheat at Sports Betting

Are you looking for ways to cheat at sports betting? Truthfully, cheating at the art of sports prediction is a complicated topic. After all, provided that professional or amateur sports are not staged, a bettor cannot cheat as in influencing the outcome of a game. Rather he or she is trying to capitalize on what naturally happens in the course of a game.

The only way to cheat would be to use some insider knowledge, not open to the public, to your advantage. While you may find a way to cheat the bookie out of money with spreads or money lines, but for the most part cheating in sports is synonymous with strategizing beyond the efforts of your opponents.

  1. Know the sport better than anyone else.

The best way to “cheat” (at least to the extent that you will be called a cheater by others) is to research and study the game better than the public. Whereas everyone else will concentrate on the peripheral statistics, you can actually improve your prediction odds by considering other data like historical statistics, team trends, situation trends, angles, inflated numbers and physical conditions of a game. Additionally, you can make more money by focusing on less popular sports or leagues; this way you will have made a niche for yourself by researching a sport no one else but you may fully understand.

2. Sign up with gambling insider companies.

This is definitely an edge that most opponents will not have. You can order picks from gambling experts and use this insider information along with your own interpretation of sports data. Most companies are willing to offer free picks, as well as the reasoning behind their prediction, and a guarantee of an improved betting average.

3. Make arbitrage or exotic bets.

You can actually make more money by betting arbitrage or exotic bets, than risking it all in the biggest competition. If you know something is going to happen based on your game analysis then make it a bet. While it may not seem likely to others at the time, an arbitrage bet may turn in your favor—and all regardless of the final score.

4. Learn to spot square or sucker lines.

Sometimes these betting lines are fabricated to sway public opinion. Learn to avoid the sucker lines and don’t be afraid to bet against public opinion. Statistics in sports gambling have observed that the public is easily swayed by fabricated lines and odds. (Some even speculate the industry does this in order to take in bigger profits) If you see through a sucker line and vote your heart you may be able to walk home with big bucks while everyone else slaps down their hat in disappointment.

Betting Online and it’s Many Advantages

Betting Online and it’s Many Advantages: Have you ever asked yourself what are the main reasons as to why millions of people across the globe are thronging sports websites with gambling facilities?

Betting Online

Intro

They could be two major reasons for that sudden game rush. One, most of these sites offer free expert betting predictions that are very easy to play and learn, hence no professionalism is required, and two, it simply boosts your morale levels thus making you feel like playing not once but as many times as possible.

So, the main question that you should be asking yourself is whether you are in any way interested in some of these sports stakes. Although some people may try in one way or the other argue that it is very risky and money consuming, on the other hand, it is what any courageous and determined person would do bearing in mind what he or she will expect in the end. That being the only con facing most online sports betting for the football game, it as well as a lot of pros in which you are bound to benefit from with no regards in whether you are new to this form of sports gambling or already acquainted.

So, apart from the very little drawbacks that might stand in your way of betting online exchange, what are some of the acclaimed advantages? First of all, when it comes to gaming exchanges is that you have the freedom to go against both backs and lay stakes in the event of a game going on, thus making you your own bookmaker. The other pro is that there are no limits as to how many stakes you place on a game hence giving you all the power and control whenever you decide to go for or back down from a sport stake.

Unlike other stake exchanges where event holders decide on the back and lay prices to be dished out, in online betting, it’s you the bookmaker who gets to decide the price as well as a venue for the specified sport. Another advantage is that you are not limited to the amount of money you can actually place in any game given that it will be to your added advantage once you win. Moreover, with some assistance from arbitrage, you will be able to hedge out stakes as well as increase your total income.

The ability to swerve from various positions simply means that you may in one way or another benefit or suffer from the heavy swings being thrown around in the gambling arena even before the game commences. All in all, in order for you to emerge successful in any gambling exchange procession, whether new or old, you ought to fully comprehend how bookmakers make huge profits come to the end of the year. If you are bound to win, the bookmaker has to pay you up, and in case you lose, then you lose all your money to him.

How to Bet Online Like a Winner


If you knew how to bet successfully, you would perhaps churn huge money from a single gambling session. In days when the Internet had not come into the picture, players had to bet at the gambling table in a casino. Today, however, online sportsbooks have become the in-thing. You can bet online at your home desktop without getting worried about the casino ambiance. sports betting is important to learn the nuances of gambling so that you can bet like a winner. In other words, you need to win ultimate, rake profits at the end of the day by betting intelligently and placing bets at the right odds.

When to Bet Online

In card games, such as poker, BlackJack, or Baccarat games, a bet can be best won if the player takes a calculated risk. It is important to show your aggression, judge the cards placed on the tables, and the “tells” of the opponents to win the bet.

There are, however, some bets which almost always deliver some profit. Known as Arbitrage betting online, players have no risk to play when they are placing a bet. In slot-machine gambling sessions or Roulette, you can bet on the place where the slot would stop or the Roulette ball would land when the wheel stops spinning.

It is often luck, a matter of chance, or simply a calculated risk that matters for you to bet decisively and win the game.

Top Profitable tips when betting online

There are many betting options which help you win some bonus points, token amount of money, or a lucrative offer. In “back” bet or “lay bet”, you need to bet on a statement. If you were right in your point, you win the bet and also prestige.

A Lay bet on the other hand can be laid by a bettor who vouches that an event would not occur in the session. Here too, the token amount is nominal but the accolades and respect are huge.

There are some freeroll tourneys which are specially meant for the newbie players. If you are new to gambling, you need to get a first-hand experience on betting. Some bets in these online betting opportunities have fixed-profit bets which help you rake money even if you were to bet at a wrong time. Here, you may not win a huge amount of money but a small amount nevertheless.

Avoid these Bets when Betting Online

Don’t try to spend too much on a particular session. In Slot games and sports events, this policy is a winning strategy — For players who like to bet and win the bet too. Spending only 2-3 percent of your bankroll should be the criterion to move forward when betting online.

Be sure to bet using small stakes to take home a smaller amount of money in session. But, play frequently to increase these amounts to a bountiful of prize money.

Remember do not ever bet with a bankroll that you cannot afford to lose. You hear stories all the time of people betting their rent or school fees only to go insane when they lose their shirt.

The secret to Sports betting money management

The secret to sports betting money management is really simple

The secret to Sports betting money management
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The most important factor in winning consistent profits from sports betting is not how many games you win. Plain and simple, it is money management.

With a proper system for managing your bankroll, it is quite possible to win less than 50% of your pieces and still have a healthy and consistent profit.

Professionals, the few people who know bet on sports for a living, that it is not possible to win more than 65 – 70% of their plays, there are simply too many factors that affect the output of each to determine the game,. And it is impossible to prevent all factors. What they know is how the number and size of the bets they make to manage.

There are many sports betting money-management systems touted on the Internet. The problem is, most of them in fact a system, but very few of them address the most important factor – RISK!

Professional weather sports, such as equity investors follow cycles to follow trends All Trends; … And all these cycles have high and low periods, it is not difficult to trends in the sporting events on the ground, the mystery is a proven system to manage to bet on this trend.

THE LABOURCHERE Sports betting money management

THE LABOURCHERE system (the Labby) is the money management system that uses the pros. Was the principle of professional roulette player develops becasue we need to win only a 39% share to breakeven? And because most sports bettors can take at least 50% winners, even by accident, the Labby system provides for a consistent profit, but, more importantly, uses much less risk than the more popular systems, namely the Martingale, or double up system.

If the martingale, where you would double the bet after every loss, the progression looks like this:

You put $ 50 and you lose.

Your next bet is $ 100. If you lose:

Your next bet is $ 200. If you lose:

Your next bet is $ 400. If you lose:

Your next bet is $ 800. If you lose:

Your next bet is $ 1600. If you lose (well, you get the picture)

It does not matter how many times you double your bet, you will only win the $ 50 when you finally met. This takes into account all your progressions up to this point. Can you imagine risking to win a thousand dollars for a shot, 50 bucks? The risk simply far outweighs the benefits.

With Labby, suppose you start with a four-number line, you play the same $ 50 per game as in the example above, the line would be .. Martingale:

25-25-25-25

Their use is always the sum of the two outside numbers. As you can see above your base bet would be $ 50. Now, suppose that we lose our first bet. Lose a bet is placed at the end of the line and our new line would

25-25-25-25-50

Therefore, their next bet would be $ 75 (25 +50) as above highlighted Suppose that we have our next bet, you win emphasize these two numbers and create your new line ..:

X-25-25-25-X

So your next bet would be back down to $ 50. Do you understand? Your goal is not so much to win every game or on the daily ups and downs, but our goal is to focus clear lines. Every two times we charge a line, we clarify our bet, and the growing bankroll means faster gains after we delete the line above 2 times would be our next line. 30-30-30-30 with a base bet of $ 60.

The best part about the Labourchere is that you back all your losses and without quadrupling doubling your bets. It is a safe and efficient way to maximize our bankroll while minimizing risks.

Start with this Sports betting money management system in your sports betting life, and you will take control of your system and gain profits.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

sports wagering terms and sports betting lingo – In a new world that you must familiarize yourself with using the lingo in order to know how to bet effectively.

Sports Wagering Terms

Action: This refers to having a bet on a particular sporting event. Many novice bettors feel the need to have “action” on a game.

Angles: This refers to any betting trends that might be associated with an upcoming event. If a certain “angle” stands out in the handicapping process, the bettor may have more confidence in the wager.

AOPR: This is an abbreviation for Average Opponent Power Rating (AOPR). Sports bettors use power ratings to measure the quality of a particular wagering line.

ATS: This is an abbreviation for Against The Spread (ATS). An ATS record measures how successful a team is at covering the point spread.

Bad Beat: A term that bettors refer to when a wager is lost in a difficult manner. Controversial officiating calls or critical turnovers/errors are among the factors that can lead to a bad beat.

Beard: This refers to somebody that places a wager for another person to conceal the real bettor’s identity. A “beard” enables the professional sports gambler to bet without being noticed by the bookmaker.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Bet Limit: This refers to the amount of money that the bookmaker will accept on each event. Sportsbooks will have house limits for each sport. Generally, limits will be higher for point spread or side bets than for over/under or total wagers.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Book: This refers to a person or establishment that accepts wagers on sports events. The term “book” can be associated with an online sports betting operation, a legal casino in the state of Nevada or an illegal bookmaking business.

Bookie: A slang term for book. Most of the time, the word “bookie” is used in reference to an illegal or neighborhood bookmaker as opposed to a Nevada or online bookmaker.

Bookmaker: Another term for book or bookie.

Buck: In the sports betting community, buck is a term used to indicate a wager of $100. A bet of ten “bucks” would equate to $1,000.

Chalk: A term that is used to indicate the team or individual that is favored to win in a particular sporting event. Because many novice bettors like to wager on favored teams, they are often known as “chalk” players.

Circled: This refers to an event that has reduced betting limits. Games can be circled due to injuries, suspensions, or extreme weather conditions. Most circled games are reduced by half the regular limit.

Cover: A term that is used to describe the team that wins against the point spread.

Dime: In the sports betting community, a dime is a term used to indicate a wager of $1,000. A bet of five “dimes” would equate to $5,000.

Dime Line: This refers to a money line betting format. When a dime line is used, there is a ten-cent price difference between the favorite and underdog. This system is most commonly used in baseball.

Dog: A slang term for the word underdog. In a sports wagering line, the “dog” is the team that is not favored to win a game.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Early Money: This term refers to the initial wagering action that occurs when a point spread is first posted on a game. Most of the early money comes from professional sports bettors. With early money wagers, bettors can potentially take advantage of some soft odds before the numbers become more settled.

Edge: This term refers to a situation when a bettor has a supposed advantage over the bookmaker on a particular game.

Sports Wagering Terms

Exotic: These are non-standard bets that are different than the more common point spread and over/under wagers. Some examples of “exotic” bets are parlays and teasers.

Fade: In the sports betting community, this term refers to a conflicting wager against another player’s action. When a high percentage of bettors are on one side for a particular game, some players will feel compelled to “fade” the other side.

Favorite: This term refers to a team that is expected to win a particular sporting event.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

First Half Bet: This refers to a wager that is determined by the halftime score in a game.

Franklin: This is a term used to describe $100. The origin is based on Benjamin Franklin’s picture being used on a $100 bill.

Gamble: To wager or bet an amount of money on the outcome of a sporting event.

Halftime Bet: A wager that is placed on the second half of a sporting event. At halftime, the bookmaker will post a new set of odds for just the second half of the game and any overtime periods that might be played in the contest.

Handicap: This refers to the process of breaking down and analyzing a point spread before placing a wager.

Handicapper: A term used to describe an individual that analyzes betting odds. Most of the time, a “handicapper” is known as someone that sells picks or betting advice to the public.

Handle: This refers to the total amount of money that a bookmaker has accepted on a particular game or event. The term “handle” is often used when a large number of bets are accepted on a marquee sports event, like the Super Bowl.

Hook: A slang term that means a half-point in a wagering spread. For example, “six and a hook” would be used to describe a 6.5-point spread.

If Bet: This refers to a wager that can only be placed if another separate bet is successful. For example, a Monday night football wager will only be allowed if the bettor won his bet on the Sunday night game.

Juice: This refers to the commission or vigorish that bookmakers gain on losing wagers. For most point spread wagers, the “juice” is ten percent. If a bettor wins, the vigorish is included in the payout.

Laying: A term that is used to describe a wager that is placed on the favorite. When supporting a favorite, the bettor will “lay” or give points to the opposing side.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Linesmaker: A term for someone that sets odds on sporting events. A lines maker may not necessarily book action. Many lines makers will sell betting odds to sportsbook operations.

Longshot: A term that is used to describe a team that is unlikely to win a sports event. For example, a club that won a championship right after a losing season would usually be viewed as a successful “longshot” squad.

Middle: This occurs when successful bets are placed on each side of a sporting event. If there are big adjustments in a point spread, a bettor has the opportunity to get favorable odds on each side to “middle” the bookmaker with the right outcome.

Money Line: This is a betting line that is used for determining the winner of a sports event. For a money line or straight-up wager, there are no points involved in the odds.

Odds: These are the betting lines that are used for a sports event.

Oddsmaker: Another term that refers to someone that sets odds on sports events.

Off the Board: This refers to a situation when betting is closed on a game. When a game is off the board, there is usually an uncertain situation involving a key player or some potential weather conditions that could dramatically affect the contest. Most of the time, a contest will be off the board for only a temporary period.

Opening Line: This refers to the initial point spread that is released by the bookmaker. Many professional sports bettors will target opening lines to gain some favorable wagers before the odds settle in.

Online Sportsbook: A sports betting operation that offers wagering services through the Internet.

Over: This occurs when the score exceeds the betting total for a sports event.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Over/Under: In the sports betting community, this term is used to refer to the wagering total for a sports event. A player can wager that the score will go over the posted total or under the figure.

Parlay: This is a type of wager that features two or more bets on a single ticket. While the payout odds on a parlay are more favorable than a single wager, the bettor cannot lose any of the plays on a parlay ticket for the bet to win.

Parlay Card: This is a unique form of parlay wagering. While regular parlays are played from the regular lineup of betting events, a parlay card contains fixed numbers that aren’t adjusted once the initial card is made available for wagering. The majority of parlay card wagers are placed on football games.

Past Post: This is a term that refers to any wager that is placed after a sporting event has started. A past post occurs most often in horse racing due to the frequency of bets that are placed right before the start of the event.

Pick: When neither team is favored in a point spread, the game is listed as a pick. In this situation, the bettor will simply “pick” which team will win the game.

Press: In the sports betting community, this term refers to a bettor that begins to wager more aggressively than normal. Most of the time, this occurs when the player is eagerly trying to recoup some lost bets.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Price: This term is used to reference the particular odds on a game or event.

Prop Bets: These are unique wagers that aren’t related to the standard point spread or money line bets on teams. Most proposition (prop) bets are matchup wagers that are focused on the outcomes of individual players in a game.

Puck Line: This term is used for a unique type of hockey bet. When a puck line is used, the favored team is installed at -1.5 goals while the underdog club is listed at +1.5 goals.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Puppy: This is another term used to describe a team that is not expected to win a sports event.

Push: This occurs when a score will fall exactly on the point spread or total for a game. When there is a push, the bettor receives a refund on his wager.

Revenge: A common handicapping angle that is used by bettors. A revenge game will occur in certain rematch contests between the same two teams. In theory, the club that lost the previous matchup will be more inspired by the potential for “revenge” than the other squad.

Reverse: This is an if bet variation that involves two separate wagers using the same two clubs.

Rundown: This term is used to reference the schedule of games and events that a bettor can select from at a sportsbook.

Run Line: A type of baseball wager that is similar to the puck line in hockey. With the run line, the favored team (-1.5 runs) must win the game by at least two runs while the underdog squad (+1.5 runs) must win the contest or lose by just a single run.

Sharp: A term used to reference a professional or savvy sports bettor. When the odds on a particular game are discussed in betting circles, it is fairly common for players to inquire about where the “sharp” money is going on a game.

Shill: An individual that promotes a business under the premises of not being directly associated with the company. In reality, the “shill” is being paid to promote the organization.

Smart Money: This refers to bets on an event that is placed by professional or sharp sports bettors.

Sportsbook: This refers to a business or establishment that accepts wagers on sports events.

Square: This term is used to describe novice or public sports bettors. Most “square” bettors aren’t very successful. In most cases, these types of players will bet on favorites.

Steam: This occurs when there is brisk action on one particular side of a betting line. A “steam” play will cause the odds to rapidly shift.

Stiff: This refers to an individual that avoids paying off gambling debts. These individuals are most often associated with neighborhood bookmaking operations.

Straight Up: This is another term that is used to reference a money line wager. There are no points involved in a straight-up bet.

Syndicate: These are a group of professional bettors that join together to wager on sports events. With additional intellectual and financial resources pooled together, many gambling “syndicates” have done quite well over the years.

Systems: These are wagering formulas that players reference before making a bet. A betting “system” is usually tied to a set of statistical parameters.

Teaser: This form of wager consists of two or more bets on a single ticket. When this type of bet is placed, the bettor can “tease” or add points to each of the teams that are selected in the wager. Like a parlay, none of the bets on the ticket can lose for the wager to be successful.

Total: These are odds related to the number of points that two teams combine to score in a game. A total is also known as an over/under wager.

Trends: This refers to a pattern of results that teams might develop that are related to betting outcomes. Many bettors will follow these “trends” when a wager is placed.

Under: This occurs when the combined number of points in a game is less than the posted total.

Underdog: This refers to the team that is not expected to win a particular sports event.

Upset: This occurs when an underdog team defeats a favored opponent in a game.

Common Sports Wagering Terms

Vigorish

Wager: This refers to a bet on the outcome of a sports event.

Wiseguy: This is an individual that is known to be a smart or savvy sports bettor. Most “wiseguys” are professional bettors.

Point Spreads Betting strategy for winning tickets

point spreads

Sports Betting: Understanding Points Spreads

In sports betting, point spread wagers are the most common type of bet. With football and basketball topping the list of the most popular sports to wager on, a successful bettor must be able to understand the important elements of a point spread.

Point Spreads Fundamentals

Because of the high amount of scoring that is involved in football and basketball, a point spread is used by oddsmakers to level the playing field of a particular matchup.

While money line or straight-up wagers are more suitable for baseball and hockey, point spread odds are the preferred option for football and basketball bettors.

For a typical football or basketball game, the oddsmaker will establish a point spread. In theory, the bookmaker is hoping to set a line that will draw solid action on both teams in the contest.

Unless a game is viewed as a pick, each point spread will have a favorite and underdog. In a wagering line, the favorite will have to win the game by a certain number of points for a bettor to cash in.

In Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs were a field goal favorite against the San Francisco 49ers. A Chiefs betting ticket would read as Chiefs -3 while a San Fransisco wager would read as 49ers +3. So, the Chiefs needed to win by at least four points to cover the point spread.

To gain a successful wager on the 49ers, the bettor would need them to either win the game or lose by two points or less. If the Chiefs won by three points, the point spread outcome would be a push. In this case, all bettors would get a refund.

Another element to the point spread involves the vigorish or juice. In principal, this is how bookmakers earn a profit on point spread wagers. Typically, there is a vigorish of 10 percent on point spread wagers.

Point Spreads Examples

In the Super Bowl example, the betting line would actually be written as Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110) or 49ers +3 (-110). To win $100, the bettor would need to wager $110.

If a bookmaker takes a wager on each team for $110, he will gain a profit of $10 regardless of which team covers.

In football, it is important to understand some key point spread numbers. Because the majority of scores in a typical football game are either a touchdown (seven points) or field goal (three points), many point spreads will have a team favored by 3 or 7 points.

Some of the other frequent key numbers for a football point spread are 4, 6, 10, 11, and 14.

While the general strengths and weaknesses of teams are evaluated in determining point spreads, there is another standard element that goes into most lines. The home field or court advantage is something that the oddsmaker must take into account when setting a line.

Typically, the home-field advantage in football will be worth a field goal to the host team in the odds. In basketball, the home value is usually worth about four points in a spread.

Totals Bets and how to use them effectively and win

totals betting

Totals Betting

Sports Betting: Understanding Totals – While the main question in sports betting involves which football or basketball team will cover the point spread, there is another popular wager that can be placed on a wide variety of sports events.

A total bet involves a wager on how many points, runs or goals will be scored in a particular sporting contest. Generally, it is a little easier to handicap a total or over/under wager than a point spread bet. With this in mind, bookmakers will set lower limits on total bets.

The Basics of Totals Over/Under Wagering

As the most popular betting sports, most over/under wagers are placed on football and basketball games. Like a point spread wager, the bettor must lay some juice or vigorish when placing a bet on a total.

For most football and basketball totals, the vigorish will be ten percent. To win $100, the bettor would need to make a wager of $110. When coming up with a football over/under, the oddsmaker will take a look at several main factors.

Primary Factors for Football Totals Over / Under Betting

The bookmaker will certainly be aware of the total score averages for both teams in a particular matchup.

If one team has an average total score of 40 points per game while the opposing squad has an average of 44 points per contest, the combined average of 42 points will form a good starting point for the oddsmaker.

The site of the game, key injuries, and potential inclement weather conditions can also be considered when setting a football total.

In the NFL, certain key numbers are important for a bookmaker to keep in mind when setting a total. Some of these key or frequent numbers are 34, 37, 38, 41, 44 and 47.

With the combination of touchdowns (seven points) and field goals (three points) in a typical NFL game, many contests will end up finishing with total scores that are reflected by the key numbers.

For example, the key number of 34 points can be reached by scores of 27-7, 24-10, and 20-14. These are fairly common scores for an NFL game.

So, the bookmaker will shade a total towards these key numbers on many occasions. With higher scoring averages in college football, the key numbers aren’t quite as important when setting totals for these games.

Factors for Baseball Over / Under Betting

In basketball, the bookmaker will once again be aware of the total scoring averages for both clubs heading into a particular game.

The venue of the matchup and any key injuries will also be considered. While football totals may not move more than two or three points most of the time, basketball totals can be vulnerable to some bigger shifts.

Over the course of the season, certain teams will adjust in tempo and pace. Obviously, this can lead to some dramatic scoring changes. In many instances, these tempo changes aren’t always obvious to the bookmaker.

At times, bettors will spot these subtle changes before the oddsmaker. When this happens, the over/under odds can have some significant movement.

College basketball is where most of these big shifts occur. Because there are so many teams for a bookmaker to keep track of in college hoops, bettors can take advantage of the house on some occasions when wagering on college totals.

Overall, a bookmaker will usually take more over bets on football and basketball than under wagers. Generally, public and novice bettors prefer to place bets on the over while professional sports gamblers don’t have a bias when wagering on totals.

Also, novice bettors will parlay a favored team with the over more often than not.

Factors for Hockey Over / Under Betting

In baseball and hockey, the over/under numbers are treated a little differently by the bookmaker. Because of the low scoring in each of these sports, the over/under figures will not shift by several runs or goals.

With the tight numbers, the bookmaker will increase the vigorish on the over/under instead of moving the number up or down. For example, a baseball total may open at nine runs.

If there is heavy action on the over, the bookmaker will move the vigorish up to -120 on the over instead of moving the actual total up to 9.5 runs. With even less scoring in hockey, these vigorish adjustments are even more commonplace.

Due to the limited scoring in baseball and hockey, the bookmaker would be vulnerable to getting middled by constantly moving off of totals. This is why the increased vigorish is used on many occasions instead of the total adjustment.

In baseball, there are two main factors that are taken into consideration when a total is set. The starting pitchers for each team are quite important in an over/under bet.

The difference between an ace pitcher on the staff and a hurler at the bottom of the rotation can be worth a couple of runs in a total.

The venue of the game is also very important. Some ballparks will be favorable to hitters while others will be more kind to pitchers. The scoring averages from one stadium to the next can vary from as much as two or three runs.

Any key lineup adjustments or injuries and the trends of the home plate umpire can also play a role in the over/under figure for a baseball contest. In a unique element to over/under betting in Major League Baseball, the totals for Chicago Cubs games at Wrigley Field are mainly determined by the wind conditions at the park.

When the wind is blowing in, runs will usually be at a premium. In contrast, Wrigley can be one of the easiest stadiums in baseball for hitters to launch home runs when the wind is blowing out.

Understanding Money Lines

money lines

Understanding Money Lines

Sports Betting and Understanding Money Lines – While point spread wagers are the most common type of sports bet, there is another option that can be used when handicapping a game or event.

A money line or straight-up wager simply involves a bet on which team will win a particular game. With a money line wager, the bettor doesn’t have to worry about how many points a team will win by.

Money Line Fundamentals

Many novice sports bettors can find the money line a little confusing. It is fairly easy to understand a football or basketball point spread.

If a particular football team is favored to win a game by a field goal, it is fairly obvious that the squad must win the contest by at least four points for the bettor to cash in.

While the money line is quite different from a point spread, the concept really isn’t too difficult to understand.

When an oddsmaker sets a point spread for a football or basketball game, there will also usually be a money line price available on each team.

There is a basic conversion chart that bookmakers are able to reference to form a suitable money line that is appropriate for the point spread that is being used for each team.

Money Line Example

In Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs were a 3-point favorite (-3) against the San Francisco 49ers.

Using the conversion chart, a solid money line on the Chiefs would have them as a -150 to -155 favorite on the money line.

If the price were at -150, the bettor would need to wager $150 on the Chiefs to win $100.

As an underdog of three points (+3), the 49ers would be installed at a price of +130 to +135 on the money line.

If San Fransisco were at +130, the bettor would wager $100 to win $130. For this kind of example, many novice bettors are confused about the price difference between the two clubs.

They don’t understand why the 49ers wouldn’t be listed at +150 in the money line odds. In reality, the price difference in a money line is almost like the vigorish or juice that is used on point spread wagers.

The odds difference between the favorite and an underdog in a money line enables the bookmaker to gain a little more protection on these kinds of wagers.

Like the point spread, the money line has its own risks and rewards. On the risk side, the bettor must lay more juice to wager on a favorite.

Of course, the reward can be a money line victory that would have been a losing point spread wager.

From the underdog perspective, the bettor doesn’t have to lay any juice at all on the money line. However, an underdog covering the point spread in a loss will not be enough for the bettor to cash his ticket on the money line.

A savvy football or basketball bettor will keep an open mind in regards to the money line. There are certainly situations where a favored team is in a good position to win a game but may not be a sound bet to cover the point spread.

On the other side of the coin, there will be instances to look at underdogs that are poised to win straight up. For the football and basketball bettor, the money line is another viable option to consider.

While point spreads are the primary betting options in football and basketball, money line wagers are the top choice in many other popular betting sports.

Money Lines in Baseball, Hockey and Soccer

Baseball, hockey, and soccer are among the sports that make primary use of the money line. Because there is limited scoring in these sports, point spreads aren’t really appropriate.

For these sports, the oddsmaker will set a money line for each club based on the appropriate strengths and weaknesses of the teams. Boxing is another popular sport that relies on the money line to set the odds for each fighter in a particular bout.

Money lines are also used for many props and matchup wagers for a variety of sports.

While point spread numbers will always gain plenty of attention during the football season, a bettor must understand the depth and importance of the money line as well to become successful in sports wagering.

Sports Betting Rules

Sports Betting Rules – At first glance, a sports bet would seem to be a very basic element without much structure.

sports betting rules

A bettor places a wager on a team and either wins or loses. Most of the time, everything goes as planned when placing a bet.

However, there are some unique instances that can develop in a sporting event. Because of this, there is a standard set of sports betting rules and procedures that are followed by most bookmakers.

Below is an overview of the main sports betting rules

Sports Betting Rules – Length of Game

The main ruling issue in sports betting involves the length of a particular game.

In the NFL and NBA, it is very rare for any game to not be completed. Still, there can be some unusual circumstances in a game that might ultimately result in a shortened contest. At most sportsbooks, a football game that lasts at least 55 minutes is considered an official contest.

In the NBA, at least 43 minutes of a game must be played to become official at most sportsbooks. This rule was notably referenced during the 2004-05 season.

In an early-season matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons, a huge brawl broke out between the two clubs. With some players actually fighting with a few of the fans at the game, the contest was called with 45 seconds left in the fourth quarter.

At the time, the Pacers held a 97-82 lead in the game. Because at least 43 minutes had been played, bettors that placed a wager on Indiana were able to collect on the game.

However, any total wagers were ruled as no action bets because the entire 48 minutes were not completed. This is one of the rare examples in basketball or football where a complete game might not be played.

Sports Betting Rules – Baseball Wagering

For Major League Baseball wagers, some basic sports betting rules are used far more often over the course of a typical season.

With many rain-shortened games in a season, it is important for the novice bettor to understand how these outcomes are handled by the bookmaker.

In Major League Baseball, an official game must consist of at least five innings. If a game goes at least five frames but not the complete nine, the bookmaker will still payout on the winning team.

However, any over/under or run-line wagers will be ruled as no action bets. For these types of wagers, a full nine innings must be played for the bets to become official.

If a tie game is suspended in extra innings, most sportsbooks will stay pay out any winning run-line or total wagers.

There is another unique aspect to baseball wagering that a bettor needs to be aware of. When wagering on a baseball money line, there are two options available to the bettor.

First, the bettor can simply have the team listed on his wagering ticket. In this instance, the bettor will have action on that particular team without any regards to that club’s starting pitcher.

In the other option, the bettor can have the starting pitchers listed on his wagering slip. If one of the starting hurlers were to be scratched from the game, the wager would be a no-action bet.

Dates of Wagering

Another common sports betting rule involves the specified date and location of a particular game or event. In most sports, a bookmaker will state that a game must be played on the scheduled date at the specific venue for it to be ruled an official contest for wagering purposes.

Again, this stipulation doesn’t come into play too often. Still, there are some occasions when this rule is enforced.

Every once in awhile, some extreme weather may force a football or basketball game to be moved back a day or two. While a date change might happen a few times over the course of a year, a location change is quite rare.

However, there was an instance during the 2010 NFL season when this sports betting rule came into place.

Because of the collapse of the Metrodome, the Minnesota Vikings had to play a “home” game in Detroit against the New York Giants. Obviously, the venue of this game had a real impact on the point spread of the matchup.

In the last decade, prop and matchup wagers have really become popular among sports bettors.

Bookmakers have had to become quite creative to meet the demand for these types of bets. With so many different kinds of prop bets available, it is vital to check the rules on these events before diving in.

Many of these wagers are quite different in structure from the standard point spread and total bets. Most online sportsbooks will provide a comprehensive list of sports betting rules for customers to go over. At the end of the day, the basic sports betting rules aren’t too complicated to understand.

Sports Betting Explained in our Betting 101 Course.

Sports Betting Explained

Sports Betting Explained- For beginning sports bettors, the odds that are listed at an online sportsbook can be confusing.

In reality, the basic concepts aren’t too difficult to understand and grasp. After a short duration of time, novice bettors can have no problem reading the various odds and lines at a sportsbook.

Our tutorial will help you to quickly ramp up to common sportsbook verbiage.

The Basics of Sports Odds

The odds for a typical football or basketball game will usually contain several common elements. Here is an example of how the odds for a football game might appear at an online sportsbook:

7 P.M. E.S.T.
301 Team A +4 (-110) +170
41 302 Team B -4 (-110) -200

For a standard day of action in either sport, the schedule will be listed in the order of the original start times of the contest.

Most sportsbooks will go by either Eastern or Pacific time zones when listing a lineup of games. If there has been a time change, this will usually be reflected.

Next to the start times, the two teams that are involved in a particular game will be listed. In the listing, the visiting team will be outlined above the home squad.

Next to each club, the bettor will notice that there is a number listed. These betting numbers are usually three-digit figures. At an online sportsbook, these betting numbers can be easily calculated and read by the bookmaker’s computer program.

To the right of each team, a point spread number will be listed. The favored team will have a minus figure while the underdog club will have a plus number.

To understand this process, the bettor must simply add or subtract the point spread number from the team that is wagered on. If the bettor places a wager on a team that is favored by four points, he must deduct four points from the amount that his choice scores in the contest.

After the four points are subtracted, the favored squad still must have more points than the other team for the bettor to cash in.

To be more direct, the favored team must win the contest by at least five points. When backing the underdog squad in this scenario, the same concepts are applied with points being added instead of subtracted.

Next to each point spread, the bettor will also notice another number. Most of the time, both of these figures will be listed as -110.

This particular number is the vigorish or juice that a bettor must lay when making a wager. If the standard ten percent vigorish is listed, the bettor must risk $110 to win $100.

For some football lines, the vigorish number might actually be listed a little higher than -110 for one of the particular sides.

Instead of moving the spread by a half or full point, the bookmaker will list a team that is drawing more action at -120.

When this occurs, the bettor must wager $120 to win $100. As one side is listed at -120, the opposing club will be shown at +100.

When the bettor sees this number, it is an even wager. At +100, the bettor can win $100 by wagering $100.

Money Line Odds

Sports Betting Explained

In addition to the point spread, the bettor will see another set of plus and minus numbers for each team. In the above example, there is a -200 for Team B and a +170 for Team A.

These two figures are the money line odds in the game. A money line or straight up wager involves no points. With this type of wager, the bettor is simply picking a team to win.

To determine the appropriate money line for each squad, there is a standard point spread conversion chart that bookmakers can reference.

In the example, the bettor would have to wager $200 on Team B to win $100. For a Team A wager, a $100 bet would yield $170.

Over / Under

Finally, there is the total or over/under figure for the game. In the above example, the number of 41 is the total.

The bettor can either place a wager that the two clubs involved in the game will combine to score 42 or more points (over) or that the contest will yield 40 or less combined points (under).

Like point spread bets, most total wagers have a vigorish of -110 for either the over or under option.

The above example contains the main elements that are associated with the odds for a football or basketball matchup. The third most popular betting sport has some listings that are a little unique.

Here is an example of how a typical baseball game might be listed at a sportsbook:

7 P.M. E.S.T.
401 Team C (Smith) +120 +1.5 (-200)
9 402 Team D (Jones) -140 -1.5 (+170)

For a baseball line, there is not a point spread. The main odds are money lines. Because of the importance of starting hurlers in baseball, each club’s pitcher will be listed in the odds.

Next to the money line odds, the bettor will notice that the number 1.5 is listed next to each team. This figure is known as the run line. With the run line, the bettor has another option to choose besides the money line.

For run line bets, the favored team will be listed at -1.5 runs while the underdog will be indicated at +1.5 runs.

In the above example, the +170 figure for Team D is the price attached to the run line.

For a Team D run line wager to be successful, the bettor will need the club to win the game by at least two runs. Once again, there is a standard conversion chart that is used to convert the money line odds into the appropriate run line prices.

Sports betting explained. Betting on sports is as old as organized sports and in this course, we will cover the following topics on sports betting.

What is Sports Betting?

Simply put, this is a way of placing a wager on the outcome of a sporting event.

How do sports bets work?

Using a bookmaker one can place any available bet on any sports event.

Is betting on sports legal?

The Overturning of PASPA in 2018 by the Supreme court was a game-changer for sports betting in the US making sports betting legal.

Is online sports betting legal?

The legalization of sports betting by PASPA allowed states to create legislation covering both legalizations of physical locations in Casinos as well as online portals.

How to place a bet online

Find a Legal online bookmaker, create an account, fund it and then start betting.

Where can I bet on sports online legally

Bookmakers have online portals which one can use to bet. Just remember to find those bookmakers that are legal in your state.

Sports betting odds

In Betting, odds are a numerical value given to a probability of an outcome of a sports event. In other words, it is simply a numerical value assigned by a bookmaker on the expected result of a match and other statistics.

Best online sports betting

The best online sports betting is one that allows you to win, as we stated in our earlier conversation, bookmakers create odds based on their own internal valuations and bottom lines so finding a bookmaker that has odds that match with your betting strategy is key.

Sports betting calculator

Try our Arbitrage Betting tool by clicking our Sure Betting Tool.

Sports gambling

Sports Gambling is the act of placing a wager on a sporting event for the benefit of winning the wager.

Sports betting sites

Most states in the US are at different levels of creating legislation to legalize sports betting in their states. Some like New Jersey and Nevada have already taken advantage and are reaping the rewards. Here is a list of a few Sports Betting sites that are working in a few states.

  1. DraftKings
  2. FanDuel
  3. BetStars
  4. Sugar House
  5. 888 Sport
  6. Caesars
  7. Golden Nugget
  8. PlayMGM Sports
  9. William Hill
  10. PointsBet
  11. Hard Rock
  12. Resorts
  13. BetAmerica 

Where can I bet on sports online

Try the above sports betting sites and remember to make sure they are legal in your state.

Sports Betting Explained

Types of sports bets

There is a ton of Sports bets available from bookmakers here are but a few

  • Three-way – as we’ve said earlier 3 way is the most common odds available. It means a home win, a draw, or an away win.
  • Double Chance – 1 or X means one has the chance of two outcomes. Home win or draw. Draw or away win and home or away win. if either or the either comes true then it’s a winning bet.
  • Over /Under – In this case Over Under is dependent on goals, If the outcome predicted is either over 2.5 goals or under that and etc
  • Both Teams to Score – Will both teams in a game score or not
  • Three-Way First Half – Same as three-way but for the first half only.
  • Correct Score – What is the correct score at the end of a match
  • Correct score – first half – Correct score first half
  • Half time/full time – What are the outcomes at both half time and full time

Conclusion.

From the times when wealthy landowners started betting on horse racing in the 16th century to the recent legalization of sports betting in the US. It is engraved in our society.

Betting odds explained in this Gambling for Novices course.

Betting odds explained

Betting odds explained: In this guide, we will show you the following.

  1. What is are the odds in sports betting?
  2. How do betting odds work
  3. How to read odds
  4. How to find winning odds
  5. How to combine odds for a winning multiplier.

For a Beginner to betting, understanding betting odds would be one of the first steps into the gambling world. In our course on Betting for Novices, we will show you how to interpret and decipher winning odds.

What are the odds in sports betting?

Betting odds explained

In Betting, odds are a numerical value given to a probability of an outcome of a sports event. In other words, it is simply a numerical value assigned by a bookmaker on the expected result of a match and other statistics.

In the image below we have the most common type of odds which is 3 way or most commonly referred to as 1X2 odds. 1 is the home team winning, in this case, Newyork City Winning odds being 1.57, X represents a draw for both teams at 4.32 and 2 Represents an away win in this case being Columbus winning 5.40 away.

Betting odds explained

How do Betting ODDS work?

Now that we know what odds are, let’s talk about how they work. A bookmaker will place odds on a sporting match once their algorithms determine the potential outcome of a match. Now a bookmaker is out to make a profit, that’s why they are in a business which means the odds that you see are not usually representative of a correct mathematical probability, they have to factor in their winning cost margin as well.

For example, Imagine a game of Coin flip. When one flips a coin, the probability of the coin landing heads or tails is 50-50, so under normal circumstances, the odds one would get would be 2.00 but typical odds by a bookmaker would be 1.80.

How to read odds?

Let’s assume that you now have a basic understanding of how odds are meant to work and the logistics behind them, now we need to cover how to read odds because reading is them is the prerequisite of choosing winning odds.

We have covered the most common of odds but there are literally thousands of odds combinations that one can use to place a bet. We will talk about the most common here.

  • Three-way – as we’ve said earlier 3 way is the most common odds available. It means a home win, a draw, or an away win.
  • Double Chance – 1 or X means one has the chance of two outcomes. Home win or draw. Draw or away win and home or away win. if either or the either comes true then it’s a winning bet.
  • Over /Under – In this case Over Under is dependent on goals, If the outcome predicted is either over 2.5 goals or under that and etc
  • Both Teams to Score – Will both teams in a game score or not
  • Three-Way First Half – Same as three-way but for the first half only.
  • Correct Score – What is the correct score at the end of a match
  • Correct score – first half – Correct score first half
  • Half time/full time – What are the outcomes at both half time and full time
Betting odds explained
  • Total goals exactly – How many goals will be scored in the game.
  • Odd/even – Will the total goals be even or odd.
  • Euro handicap – goals are added to the underdog and accordingly subtracted from the favorite.
  • Over/under – first half – Same as Over Under but results for the first half.
  • Draw no bet – full time -A wager would be considered null if the outcome is a draw.
  • Both teams to score – first half – Awager on if both teams will score in the first half.
  • Full-time result + total goals over/under – A wager on if the total score is over or under a given line.
  • Full-time result + both teams to score – The result of a match in addition to if both teams will score.
  • Half with most goals – Half with the highest amount of goals wager.
  • Number of goals in groups – full time – Betting wager on goals in a grouping for example 2-5, 3-4, 0-2,
  • Total goals over/under home team – full-time This is the total number of goals scored by the home team.
  • Total goals over/under away team – full time – This is the total number of goals scored by the away team.
  • The first team to score – Awager on the first team to score.
  • Asian handicap – full time – A team receives a Handicap which means that one team receives a virtual head start.
  • Asian handicap – half time A team receives a Handicap which means that one team receives a virtual head start in a given half.
  • Asian total goals over/under – full time A team receives a Handicap which means that one team receives a virtual head start on goals for a given match.
  • Asian total goals over/under – half time – A team receives a Handicap which means that one team receives a virtual head start on a given half on goals.

How to find winning odds

I will not delve much into this here as we will be covering this in greater detail on another course sufficed to say this is the reason you are here reading this because you are interested in knowing how to pick winning odds.

The most common way to pick winning odds, however, is to pick favorites, while nothing in betting is ever guaranteed, favorite teams are usually predicted to win by a higher margin than normal which is why their odds are somewhat lesser than normal as seen in the diagram below. Pick favorites and you are assured of a winning bet.

How to combine odds for a winning multiplier

One of the most common strategies one can employ is one where you combine multiple odds to create a bigger payout, for example, the odds above can be combined to increase the multiplier otherwise known as a Multi bet.

Conclusion

Odds play a key role in a winning betting strategy when it comes to sports betting. But one has to understand that odds do not have a 100% on the outcome of a match rather they are skewered based on the bookmaker’s belief on how they would make money on that given game so do not take them as gospel. Using A strategy like Arbitrage betting, you can also beat the bookmakers at their own game.

FAQS

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