NFL Betting Tips for Winning the 2020-2021 Seasons.
Table of Contents
As the year progresses, we will discuss how an NFL football season is 4 seasons, each of which must be bet differently. We’ll discuss the importance of the line or point spread. Our free NFL picks will be available and which money lines moves are significant and which aren’t, as well as a recap for you weekly where the Gambling money was placed as well as how the sportsbooks themselves actually fared. We trust you will find reading us enjoyable and informative and look forward to the season.
NFL Betting Tips
Point Spread Wagering In NFL Betting
Perhaps the biggest and most important advancement in sports wagering was in the 1930s and ’40s when the “point spread” became popular.
Prior to the invention of the point spread, sports wagering was similar to horse racing, in which complicated odds were posted on the basis of a particular team winning the game outright, (or, in betting parlance, “straight-up”.)
While this method of betting works fairly well on evenly matched teams, it is less than satisfactory when one team is clearly superior to the other.
For example, over the last 10 years or so, Seattle has clearly outclassed Detroit in NFL football. Without a point spread, to bet on Seattle might have required betting $5, $10 or even $15 just to win $1.
Betting on Detroit might offer more attractive odds (betting only $1 to win $10), but the fact is that the Detroit Lions have lost nearly double the times in the last 15 meetings between these two teams (Seattle 10 wins vs Detroit 5 wins in their H2H).
Therefore, NFL betting on games that were not evenly matched held limited appeal for the public.
With a point spread, winning the bet is not determined by which team actually wins the game, but rather by the final score of the game. Here’s how to do it:
Take the score of the team favored to win and subtract the number of points posted on the board (ie., the point spread). So the team with which has the most points after this subtraction is the team that wins for betting purposes.
Let’s use the above 2018 Lions vs Seahawks game as an example. Because the bookmakers knew that Seattle was clearly the superior team, and they posted a point spread of “Seattle -21” (or “Seattle minus 21 points.”) Using betting parlance if you bet on Seattle you were betting “the favorite at minus 21,” or “laying 21 points.” If you bet on Detroit, you were betting “the underdog at plus 21 points” or “taking 21 points.”
The actual final score of this game was Seattle 28, Detroit 14. However, if you bet on Seattle you would have lost the bet. Since the point spread was “-21,” we would subtract 14 points from the 28 points Seattle actually scored and come up with 14. Since Detroit actually scored 14 points, Detroit was the point-spread winner, 21 to 14.
Betting parlance would say the Lions “failed to cover the spread”. In fact, over the past 10 years, although Detroit lost most their games “straight-up” versus the Seahawks, by betting on Detroit and “taking the points,” you would have won your point spread bet 7 out of 10 times!
NFL Betting using the Line
Another name for the point spread is “the line”. If the score of a game comes out to be a tie (after the subtraction of points), the game is said to be “a push”, and all players get their money back.
Here’s how the sports book makes money out of the deal. When placing a bet, a player pays a fee called the “vigorish” or “vig”, which is usually 10% of the wager.
Whether you are sports betting on the favorite team or wagering the underdog team, you would bet $11 to win $10, or $110 to win $100 and so on.
In our example, a person who bet $11 to win $10 on Detroit would collect $21 on his winning ticket, while the bettor who bet $11 to win $10 on Seattle would collect nothing, losing his $11 bet.
Remember, the bookmaker is trying to get almost exactly the same amount of money bet on both sides to assure he makes a profit. To understand how this works, let’s assume that the bookmaker accepted only two $10 bets on the Seattle vs Detroit game, one bet on the favorite and one on the underdog.
Since he charged $11 to both bettors, he collected a total of $22. After paying the underdog better $21, the bookmaker has made a $1 “profit” on the whole deal. This “$1 profit” represents one of the lowest wagering margins of all betting propositions available in Las Vegas. If you do the arithmetic, you would discover that the winning percentage you need to break even is 52.38%.
NFL Betting points total
You can also NFL bet on the total points that were scored during the game. To bet on a total, the player examines the number of “total points” posted on the board. This can also be called the “totals line” or the “over/underline”.
If the player thinks that the actual total points to be scored by both NFL teams (added together) will be MORE than the posted “total points”, the player bets the “over”. Otherwise, the player bets the “under”.
NFL Betting Parlay
It is possible for NFL betting on two or three games as part of the same bet. This is called a “parlay” bet. In order to win a parlay bet, all of the items must win.
The attraction of the parlay bet is that the amount to be won is much higher than that for playing a single game. To bet on more games as a single bet, players can bet a “parlay card”.
Parlay cards have big payoffs for selecting several winners. Many parlay cards also have winning payoffs for “almost wins”, such as 9 out of 10 winners. Be sure to read the information printed on the parlay cards for payoff rates and rules for handling ties, etc.
NFL Betting Teaser
A special type of point spread bet is a “teaser” bet. A teaser bet offers the player a more advantageous point spread in exchange for a lower payoff. Many books offer “teaser cards” for betting combinations of teaser bets.
Many sportsbooks run contests in which gamblers compete with other players for prizes.
How To Place An NFL Bet
A typical example betting board in a sportsbook or casino will list:
8 Green Bay -3
This game will be assigned as game “7/8” with Detroit being team number seven and Green Bay being team number eight.
The number on the right indicates that Green Bay is a three-point favorite over Detroit. If a player decides to bet on Green Bay they can go to the window and state “I would like $11 to win $10 on team eight, Green Bay minus the three” and sound like a pro!
If you would like to bet a parlay or teaser you need to have the numbers available for all the teams you wish to back. When choosing multiple NFL teams you will look to the betting board for the numbers of the teams you need, for instance:
2 Dallas -7
3 NY Giants
4 Chicago -8
5 New England
6 Miami -3
8 Green Bay -3
After deciding which teams you want to back in your parlay or teaser you can then approach the window and state “I would like a $10, four-team parlay (or teaser) on team one Philadelphia, team four Chicago, team six Miami, and team eight Green Bay.”
Again shopping for numbers relevant to your games of interest is very important because you may have to lay 3 1/2 points at one sports book while another house offers your team at minus three, which can make a big difference.
NFL Handicapping For Beginners
After reviewing the above sections of this guide you should have a basic understanding of how the line (odds/spread) is determined. We cannot stress enough that the goal of the spread in each gaming contest is to equalize NFL betting on both sides and it is NOT a prediction of the score differential between two teams.
The sportsbook wants to have equal action on both sides so they have no risk regardless of the actual outcome. It is because of this fact that players receive their biggest advantage–their ability to shop.
When sportsbooks begin to receive more money on one side over another they will actually adjust the line in order to create more interest on the other team. And If you like that “other” team, it is in your best interest to wait until the line moves before placing a bet, thereby receiving the best value.
But, if you are interested in backing the NFL team in which most if not all of the money is going to, it is in your interest to wager before the line moves. Because there are so many casinos, some books may not have received as lopsided money as others and thus put a slightly different line on a game.
A good shopper will eventually find the best value for his side, and over the long haul a 1/2-point here, and a point there can translate into significantly greater profits.
The Weather and Injury factors
An infinite variety of activities play into each line. The weather in NFL football is a big factor. Injuries to a star or integral players make having the latest information on a team vital.
Such considerations as who is the home team and what’s the history behind a match up are very important. Historical results that show tradition and revenge situations are very crucial in determining how a game will play out. Equally essential is the upcoming schedules of the teams, their starting participants and who’s in the coach’s doghouse.
Betting Hits is the leader in sports handicapping and sports information because of its ability to stay on top of and disseminate all of these crucial factors. Many casinos hire experts and consultants to help them with the odds because there are too many of the above factors, along with current power statistics and trends, for a busy casino to follow them all accurately.
Who will win the game? That’s the answer all handicappers are searching for and since the sports books conveniently place numbers on a game in order to equalize betting on both sides, the numbers make your job of selecting the winning team more difficult.
With all of the factors available to you as a handicapper of NFL Betting and also available to the oddsmakers and bookmakers the difference between winning and losing comes down to the practical application of that information.
Never use hunches or gut feelings
Common sense, hunches, TV games, and personal loyalties are nice instruments to keep a player interested, but in the long run, they are also a nice way to keep you broke!
Be A Money Manager
The best and most successful handicappers are money managers looking for ideal situations which are defined as games with only a high percentage of return.
In individual situations, dumb luck will play into the outcome of games which no amount of handicapping can overcome, but in the long run a disciplined handicapper will win more of those lucky games than they lose, because they aren’t depending on the luck-factor for winners.
Experts will gather as much information that’s available through the latest in available statistics, trends, weather, home field and team histories. One well known example of a historical trend is that NFL teams which play on the road three weeks in a row have been strong go-against plays. This trend has been a winning play for a decade.
NFL Betting Computer Systems
Computer programs are also being written daily to review, analyze and predict how each team does against the point spread. These programs reflect the opinions of each individual because some handicappers give more value to some factors over others.
For instance one handicapper may determine home field to be the most important issue in each NFL betting game, while another believes that the coach is the most important component in a game.
It is important to note that usually you cant have no “right” way to pick a game. The emphasis of a handicapper needs to be on disciplining themselves to a system that has produced winners for them and never varying from it.
Read the News
The information available to a player can be found in daily publications, news services, computer services or specific detailed programs for this purpose. The goal of a handicapper is to study as much information as you can, for as far back as you can, in order to find the necessary trends which fit your handicapping needs.
You will find that the more time, effort and work you put into your task the more you will learn and more successful your handicapping will be.
Seven Key Factors For NFL Sports Wagering
Both amateur and professional gamblers know that successful NFL Betting is dependent on the law of probability.
When doing any NFL Sports Gambling there are seven key ideas that pertain to successful sports wagering:
1- For successful NFL Gambling the first thing you must do is completely forget luck. Depending on good luck when doing your Betting is a good way to not be successful in Sports Wagering.
2- Always remember that your NFL Betting has a better than break-even percentage, the more Sports Wagering you do, the more winnings you will have.
3- Even the most successful gamblers have losing streaks. All plan for this when Sports Gambling.
4- Don’t overcompensate when you experience a losing streak or switch sports services. The length of Winning or losing streaks varies when doing long term Sports Wagering and the serious Gambler should not get discouraged.
5- In NFL Sports Gambling, you cannot expect a trend to continue when the changes occur that can affect that trend.
6- Winning at NFL Sports Wagering depends on successful money management. Keep all of your Bets within a certain money range.
7- Look for Games where the Sportsbook has posted incorrect Odds to avoid lop-sided NFL Betting and other Sports Wagering.
NFL Sports Gambling can be a successful enterprise. Once you are secure in these ideas, you can take your bet to the Sportsbook or Bookmaker. The Sportsbook is a legal Sports Gambling establishment.
Most of the Casinos in the US contain a Sportsbook. A Bookmaker, or Bookie, is someone who can accept a Sports Wagering proposition. When you go to do your Sports Gambling, you may be offered a Parlay or Teaser bet.
Both a Parlay and Teaser bet tie the outcome of two or more Bets together. Although both these Bets may offer a high Payout, they do not fall under the successful Sports Wagering strategy. Another way to be successful at Sports Gambling is to find a good Handicapping company.
A Handicapping company can provide Picks for Football, Baseball, Racing, or most other sports. Getting Picks for Games from a Handicapper is a good start to successful Sports Wagering if you are new to the Sports Wagering world.
NFL Football Betting Tactics
1. One Game Does Not A Season Make
Alway approach football betting in terms of an entire season or seasons. One or two losing weekends should never spell disaster – off weeks are an inevitable part of sports gambling. Successful bettors “grind out” their winnings over the course of the season. In other words, don’t try for the big kill on one game – simply set your goals (and your money management systems) to win more games than you lose over the long haul.
2. Early Season Pointspread and Money Line Value
Look for excellent money line and point spread values early in the season, before the oddsmakers have had a chance to “catch up” with which teams are hot and which teams are not. Start your football handicapping analysis during the summer so you’ll be ready to take full advantage of the first few weeks of the season.
3. Bet Quality, Not Quantity
Narrow your weekly betting choices down to no more than 5 – 7 games per week. It’s a rare week when more than a few games will stand out as good wagering values. Find these games and you’ll better your odds of winning more than you lose.
4. Shop For The Best Odds and Lines
With hundreds of online sportsbooks and more springing up every season, college football lines and point spreads will vary from sportsbook to sportsbook. Make sure that you are getting the bestest odds for your betting dollars.
5. History Does Not Always Repeat Itself
Never put too much stock in a team’s performance in a single game. Much to the bookmakers’ delight, most gamblers are enticed by a team that looked great the previous week. The oddsmakers will adjust the lines to reflect this effect, and in the process, the team in question will have poor line value. Plus, last week’s “great” team usually comes back down to earth the following week and fails to cover.
6. Never put yourself under pressure by betting more than you can afford.
7. Try to master one gambling game. Gin, poker, and backgammon offer the most opportunities. Then find someone who plays less well than you do and gets to work! Do not go looking for some local hot-shots just to show how brave you are.
8. When betting on NFL games, always try to get the final difference of 3 points on your side. Roughly 10% of all NFL games finish with the favorite winning by 3. The difference between 2.5 & 3 (or 3.5 & 3) may not look much, but it is massive.
9. If you like NFL teasers, do not bet at worse conditions than this:
- You lay 110/100.
- If either game is tied, the result of the bet is a push.
- You receive a 6 point start on each game.
10. It is usually better to subtract points from the favorite than to add to the underdog (for example, if Washington is a 7 point favorite over Dallas, generally ‘Skins -1 is more likely to win than ‘Boys +13, although there is, of course, a decent chance that both will win.
NFL Betting Odds
11. NFL odds tend to drift in the direction of the favorite as the week goes on. Some overseas-based bookmakers put lines up early in the week. If you like a favorite, it often pays to bet it early, and pick up the benefit of perhaps 1 or 2 points.
12. It pays to do some homework. Try to find a transcendent player who has had a good previous form on the game (especially the quarterback position). Mahome’s play in the Superbowl in February was a good example of this theory.
British bookmakers seem to think they have a God-given right to win if the teams are tied after four quarters. Clarify this item first, and do not bet if you lose the tie.
13. If you are willing to work that extra hard, study up on an esoteric area of the internet then you can make yourself some real money.
14. An obscure event is coming up soon, one about which most bookmakers have no knowledge, and neither do the oddsmakers in Las Vegas who set these lines.
This event is called the “NFL Preseason”, and week one of the season because without the usual training camp and scrimmages because of Covid-19. No one knows what the teams will look like and perform.
Go to some local news websites of the teams you want to bet on in week one and peruse those for any news concerning those particular NFL teams. Do not fiddle with NFL teams that have new head coaches and systems like the Cleveland Browns. – the oddsmakers know little about what these teams will look like in the first week of play.
Do follow the practices carefully, and watch for any contending player who shows a sudden improvement over their previous year performances and who are looking to bounce back. Also, players, who are in their contract years you might get a very attractive price.
20. Betting is for fun, so treat it as such! If you cannot follow basic concepts such as those above, and you feel you must bet every game or every race (instead of waiting for the good bets), play the lottery – you’ll have a better chance.